737
FXUS63 KDMX 162342
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
642 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few spotty showers this afternoon and evening, mainly west
  and north.

- Cooler temperatures will make for a pleasant end to the week.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms return this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

An upper level trough has edged into the area, swapping our flow
around to northerly and allowing for cooler air to filter into
the state. This has kept temperature today much more comfortable
than have been seen the past several days, remaining in the
upper 70s to near 80 degrees this afternoon. Two weak embedded
waves are set to move across the area today. The first has
remained across western Iowa much of the day, resulting in a few
weak showers there. These are expected to taper off later this
afternoon. Next up is a wave moving across South Dakota and
Nebraska today, which can be picked up in GOES satellite
imagery. Earlier shower activity with this wave has already
tapered off this afternoon. As the wave moves into Iowa this
evening a few CAMs indicate that additional showers may briefly
develop. While this is possible with weak convergence available,
do not expect much more than showers as instability is weak and
generally under 500 J/kg.

The rest of the week will be quite pleasant, so if you`ve been
putting off outdoor activities now is the time! Expect to see
daytime highs in the upper 70s and low 80s and overnight lows in
the 50s and 60s with low humidity.

By this weekend a shortwave embedded within the larger trough is
expected to pass across the midwest. As this happens models have
indicated that it may slow down, deepening into a cutoff low over
area. This will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms back to
the area this weekend, however with lingering uncertainty regarding
the synoptic progression, timing and strength of precipitation
cannot be well determined at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

VFR conditions ongoing and expected to continue through the TAF
period. Few lingering showers or sprinkles southeast with the
possibility for a few additional scattered showers mainly west.
These should pose little to no impacts to TAF sites for the
most part and if any rain would occur, it would be light and
brief generally precluding any precipitation mentions at KOTM,
with any new activity tonight, if any, generally west of KFOD.
Otherwise winds generally out of the north under 10 knots
tonight may become light and variable at times before increasing
towards 10-12 knots with a few gusts towards 15-20 knots during
the daytime Wednesday.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hagenhoff
AVIATION...KCM