711
FXUS63 KDLH 250545
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1245 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Next chance of rain arrives Wednesday through Thursday. Some heavy
rain and areas of localized flooding are possible, most likely for
NW WI.

- A warmer and stickier airmass pushes into the area for the
weekend.

- Another round of rain and thunderstorms is possible this
  weekend, with the potential for some severe storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

A gorgeous early summer day today as clear skies prevail and lower
dewpoints and temperatures have moved into the Northland. Into
Wednesday and Thursday, a Maddox Frontal pattern sets up across the
Upper Midwest as shortwave trough runs into the upper level ridge
and copious amounts of moisture continue to run into a quasi-
stationary front sitting over southern Minnesota. The bulk of the
best synoptic and mesoscale forcing for this system is still
expected to largely be to the south of much of the Northland, with
only a couple isolated ensemble members bringing it north of Hwy 2
or even Hwy 8. Much of the instability is expected to stay south of
this boundary as well. What this means for the Northland is that the
best chance for the heavy rain should remain along the southern
periphery of the CWA, with NW WI having the best chance for
excessive rainfall that could lead to isolated flooding. Here, a
widespread 1-3" is possible, with localized amounts of 4"+ along the
very southern portions of Pine, Burnett, Washburn, Sawyer, and Price
Counties. Current model trends continue to agree that areas further
south in our neighbor`s CWAs have a much higher risk of excessive
rainfall and flooding. Into NE MN, some rain is still possible as
PWATs of 1-1.5" are still expected, but amounts should generally be
a lot lighter here, more in the 0.1-0.75" range, with little to no
rain possible along the International Border.

Northeast winds over Lake Superior Wednesday and Thursday may also
lead to an increased swim risk for Minnesota and Wisconsin Point
beaches as waves increase.

This system should move out of the area Thursday night into early
Friday morning with a lull before the next round of precipitation
arrives through the weekend. Continued ridging and moisture
transport means that warm and moist weather could make a return with
high temperatures in the 80s to near 90F possible for portions of
the Northland Saturday and Sunday (likely still cooler near Lake
Superior). Along with this warmth and moisture comes a flux of
instability which is expected to meet stronger shear and synoptic
forcing later Saturday into Sunday. This is likely to lead to areas
of rain and thunderstorms, with some severe storms possible Saturday
evening through Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

VFR conditions and light and variable winds are expected through
mid-morning or so. The only caveat might be a very brief
instance of fog that could develop, most likely at HIB, over the
next few hours, but most model guidance does not suggest it will
happen, so I left it out of the TAFs. Around mid-morning, rain
is expected to move in gradually to BRD/HYR and eventually DLH
and possibly HIB/INL mid-day into the afternoon. VFR conditions
are generally expected, except the possibility for some MVFR
conditions at BRD/HYR into the afternoon and evening due to both
low clouds and visibility in falling rain. The rain is expected
to be a fairly steady light to moderate rain and thunder is not
expected. Winds will switch around to easterly to southeasterly
on Wednesday, remaining generally light but with occasional
gusts to around 15 kt possible at times.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 209 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Light southwest winds today die down overnight and swing around to
become northeasterly overnight into Wednesday, with some gusts of
15-20 knots possible in the afternoon, strongest at the head of the
lakes. Those northeast winds are then expected to strengthen further
Thursday along with some showers and thunderstorms possible.
Small Craft Advisories may be needed. With the return of more
humidity late week, we could also see patchy dense fog come back as
well.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Levens
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...Levens