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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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141 FXUS63 KDLH 131119 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 619 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of fog this morning are expected to clear out by mid morning. Additional fog will be possible again tomorrow morning. - A few showers and sprinkles again in the afternoon today mostly over the Arrowhead and into NW WI. - Widespread rain is expected to spread in from the west late Wednesday with chances lingering into Friday. Rainfall may be moderate to heavy at times with a few embedded thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 314 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Current Conditions/Today: Areas of fog this morning will erode by the mid morning hours. Surface high pressure over much of the region today bringing in some increased subsidence and drier air. Models hang onto a ribbon of moisture spanning from the Arrowhead and into portions of NW WI. Diurnal heating through the day could once again result in some isolated showers and storms in the afternoon across this ribbon. Lack of overall shear as we saw in the previous day will result in the same interactions. Any storms that do manage to blossom will not last long and collapse on themselves occasionally producing gusts of 30 mph with some outflow boundaries. Tomorrow: Surface high pressure moves off to the east on Wednesday as southerly flow returns to the Northland. Temperatures will warm to the upper 70s and low 80s. Cloud cover will also be increasing through the day out ahead of our next weather system. Upper level troughing works across the Northern Plains with a surface low strengthening and moving east across the Central Plains. A warm front will surge in from the south spreading showers and storms Wednesday evening through Thursday. Confidence has increased on the overall onset time as the 00Z suite of deterministic guidance has come into good agreement. Storm Chances: Some embedded thunderstorms can`t be ruled out with MUCAPEs of a couple hundred J/kg. Bulk shear profiles vary between guidance ranging from 15-30 kts. The better dynamics for severe weather look to be off to the west and south, which seems reasonable given the low track is expected to traverse across southern MN. Heavy Rain Chances: The primary concern with this incoming system will be some moderate to heavy rainfall at times. Model variance on QPF still remains on the highs side with plumes not having favorable clustering. It is interesting that both operational models of the Euro and GFS are on the low side for QPF when compared to the rest of their ensemble members. The overall dynamics at play show deep saturation in the lower levels with warm cloud depth of 10-12k ft. At this juncture the system is not expected to stall out so concerns for flash flooding are on the low end. Friday-Weekend: By Friday evening the system deepens into a cut off low over the Great Lakes Region. This will throw us back into the regime we`ve seen the past couple days. Cyclonic flow aloft with diurnal heating in the afternoon leading to showers and isolated storms popping up. Expect this pattern to hold though the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 617 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Clear skies this morning with some areas of fog still lingering across the region. Fog will burn off around mid morning with light winds and VFR conditions through the day. Diurnal cumulus will populate in the afternoon with some spotty showers and an isolated storm possible, however the better chances for this will be over the Arrowhead and into NW WI. Overnight, fog will once again develop and impact most of the terminals before dispersing Wednesday morning. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 314 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Areas of fog this morning will dissipate by late morning. Winds will generally be light today with high pressure gliding across the region. Areas of fog will once again develop tonight and erode the following morning. Easterly winds increase tomorrow with speeds of 10-15 kts expected. Some funneling at the head of the Lake could see these speeds further increase in the afternoon. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Britt AVIATION...NLy MARINE...Britt