976
FXUS63 KDLH 202058
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
358 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Backdoor cold front moving south across the area this
  afternoon has brought scattered showers and thunderstorms. No
  severe storms are expected. Some fog could develop overnight
  into Sunday morning.

- Hazy skies persist with smoke mostly aloft.

- Next best chance for rain and thunderstorms late Monday into
  Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 356 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

A weak backdoor front dropping slowly south across the region
this afternoon and evening has served as the focus for scattered
showers and storms across mainly northern Minnesota, but they
are beginning to push into central Minnesota and northwest
Wisconsin as of 3 PM. Given our atmospheric PWAT values range
from 1.25 to 1.5 inches, we have been getting some heavy
rainfall rates with these slow moving, weakly sheared storms.
The spicier cells may be able to produce some small hail, but
with freezing levels above 11kft, this is less likely than the
heavier rainfall rates. This front sags south of the forecast
area overnight, though showers and isolated storms may linger
across the southern CWA overnight and again on Sunday, in a very
similar environment as today, with more slow moving, weakly
sheared storms producing locally heavy rainfall and perhaps some
small hail. Like this morning, I also expect some patchy fog
tonight.

Satellite shows an area of elevated smoke mainly over northern
Minnesota this afternoon, but so far this only appears to be
making skies appear milky. Temperatures do not appear to be held
back very much this afternoon with temperatures in the upper
70s to mid 80s over the area. The boundary sagging through today
should bring enough cloud cover to Sunday for temperatures to
be slightly cooler than today.

Monday through Tuesday there are some indications of a similar
backdoor cold front with a shortwave that moves through Monday
afternoon or night. The pattern looks very similar to today,
with mostly garden variety showers and thunderstorms with slow
movement and locally heavy rainfall. Model differences in timing
have caused us to put mostly chance pops Monday afternoon and
night, with chances lingering into Tuesday.

After that front moves through, the models are in fairly decent
agreement on a ridge building into the area for the latter half
of the work week, bringing a period of drier weather and slowly
warming temperatures into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

A weak front dropping slowly south across the region this
afternoon and evening will help generate some scattered showers
and storms around the terminals. Have put in initial estimate of
timing with VCTS groups for now, but expect to need to make
adjustments. Expect a repeat of fog again tonight, and have
included some IFR/MVFR fog at the terminals generally in the
04z-13z time frame. There may be showers that linger along the
boundary overnight, but confidence in affecting any of the
terminals is low and have left out for now. It should sag to
just south of the area by 15z, so the newer diurnally driven
convection should stay away from the terminals.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 356 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Northeast winds of 10-15 kts today will diminish overnight
tonight, then increase to similar speeds again for Sunday. Waves
to remain in the 1 to 3 feet range through Sunday night. Monday
winds to turn southwest in the 5 to 10 knot range, then turn to
the northeast once again for Tuesday, increasing into the 10-15
knot range once again. Conditions may become hazardous for small
craft on Tuesday, mainly along the South Shore and into the
southwest arm of the lake.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...LE