793
FXUS63 KDLH 052337
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
637 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and a few storms are forecast
  this afternoon and early evening, mainly over northeast
  Minnesota.

- Another system will bring additional chances of rain this
  weekend. Diurnal rain and storm chances persist through much
  of next week.

- High water persists across the Rainy River Basin and a Flood
  Advisory is in effect through early next week. See the summary
  at www.weather.gov/dlh/RainyRiverBasin for more information.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

An upper low over Wisconsin today along with a surface trough
is the source of the scattered showers and a few storms over the
area this afternoon and early evening. These should diminish
significantly tonight, though a few showers may linger overnight
over northern Minnesota. We should get another round of mainly
diurnally driven showers and storms on Saturday, with decent
instability but without much shear, producing brief heavy
downpours and lightning. Any risk of severe storms looks
limited. Saturday night through Sunday night there will be
another round of showers and storms with lingering overnight
showers, with the strongest activity during the diurnal maximum
of the afternoon and evening, and continuing through Monday. The
models are depicting increasing instability on Sunday and
Monday, but also with a little more shear than today or
tomorrow. The severe weather threat still does not appear
terribly significant, but looks better Sunday and Monday than
today or tomorrow.

This active weather pattern continues through much of next
week, with almost daily chances for showers and storms. We will
be within an upper level trough with some shortwaves that dive
through it. There is some consensus for one perhaps Tuesday
night, but timing varies enough for us to have chance pops
spread from Tuesday through Wednesday in the NBM, but in a
diurnal pattern without any overnight pops. In fact, this
diurnal pattern continues through most of this week, though
ridging aloft make give us a break Thursday. The northwest flow
aloft will also help keep us near to below normal for
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 636 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

A line of storms is moving south across the Arrowhead this evening
with a few scattered storms elsewhere over the International Border
and north central MN. Severe weather is not expected and these
storms will quickly weaken over the next several hours. Afterwards,
fog has a chance to develop tonight but will disperse shortly after
sunrise. Tomorrow will see another day with diurnally driven cumulus
populating through the day with some isolated storms developing in
the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 342 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Light northeast winds of less than 10 kts today will gradually
diminish overnight tonight. Winds will become southwest Saturday
morning and increase to near 10 kts, with some gusts up to 15
knots along the North Shore, only to diminish again Saturday
night. Sunday winds will become southeast to east, and increase
to 10 to 15 knots on Sunday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 119 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

No updates with this issuance... Previous discussion below.

A Flood Advisory remains in effect across portions of the Rainy
River Basin, extending as far east as Lac La Croix and as far
west as the Rainy Lake outlet. Lingering high water from June
and early July rainfall continues to flow slowly through the
Rainy River Basin. Headwaters gauges on the Kawishiwi River,
Basswood River, and Lake Vermilion have crested and indicate
that the flood wave or peak water levels are slowly making their
way through the basin. However, rises continue on the Vermilion
River and Lac La Croix and downstream of those points. This has
led to high water and some minor flooding on Crane Lake and
Namakan/Kabetogama (Nam/Kab) lakes, as well as lake levels
increasing on Rainy Lake.

Per the latest IJC water level bulletin, dam operators have
pulled all logs at Kettle and Squirrel Falls, and continue
pulling logs at International Falls as conditions allow in order
to maximize outflow through the basin. However, the sheer
volume of water moving through the basin will still result in
rises on these lakes due to the natural constriction of the
flow. Vermilion River is forecast to crest late this week and
then begin slow recessions. Water level rises further downstream
on Nam/Kab are likely to continue (recent rates of rise have
been an inch or two a day, this is likely greatest rates of rise
and should begin to slow by the weekend), with peak water level
early to mid next week. As is usual for this basin, water will
move slowly and recessions will happen at glacial speeds.
Additional rainfall may cause brief rises in tributaries and
extend the period of high water in core lakes. Boaters should
expect high water, potentially hidden underwater hazards, and
strong currents in constricted areas.

The Flood Advisory currently extends through next Wednesday,
but may need to be extended based on observed conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...LE
HYDROLOGY...JDS