Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
993 FXXX12 KWNP 181231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Jul 18 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity returned to moderate levels. Region 3753 (N15W59, Bxo/beta) produced a M1.2 flare at 17/1951 UTC followed by a M2.0 flare at 17/1958 UTC as it underwent decay. Region 3751 (S08E24, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) was the culprit for a M2.2 flare at 18/1014 UTC and a M2.0 flare at 18/1027 UTC. This region was also responsible for C-class flare activity as it underwent evolution, gaining maturing spots and small delta signatures in its intermediate area. Region 3760 (N18E04, Bxo/beta) was numbered this period as it rapidly emerged. The remaining active regions, although numerous, were little changed and relatively quiet in comparison to the aforementioned flare events. A large prominence erupted off the southeast limb with a resultant CME that became visible in C2 imagery at 17/1900 UTC. This event is not expected to be geoeffective due to the source location of S34E90. Other notable activity included a DSF centered near N19W29 at approximately 18/0426 UTC. However, there is no sign CME propagation in available coronagraph imagery, suggesting it was reabsorbed. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to be moderate (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for further X-class flares (R3, Strong) on 18-20 Jul. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 18-20 Jul. There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) storm levels as region 3738 rotates further around the west limb on 18-20 Jul. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected background-like conditions. Total field was 4-5 nT, the Bz component was mostly at or near neutral, and solar wind speeds averaged between ~335 to ~375 km/s. Phi was predominantly in a positive solar sector. .Forecast... An ambient, background-like state is expected to continue until late on 18 Jul at which point conditions are likely to become enhanced due to the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS and persist through 20 Jul. An additional enhancement is anticipated late 20 Jul due to the arrival of the 16 Jul CMEs. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet. .Forecast... Quiet to active levels are expected through 19 Jul due to the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS. Quiet to active conditions are expected on 20 Jul as the HSS effects wane followed by arrival of the 16 Jul CMEs.