947
FXXX12 KWNP 070031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Jul 07 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
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#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels. An M1.0 flare was observed at
06/2315 UTC from AR 3738 (S09E58, Ekc/beta-gamma). C-class flare
activity was observed from Regions 3729 (S05W72, Hax/alpha) and 3733
(N05W68, Dki/beta). Growth was noted in the intermediate and trailer
spot areas of new Region 3738. The remaining regions were mostly stable.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the 24hr summary period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low over 07-09 Jul, with a chance for
isolated M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels over 07-09 Jul. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
is expected to persist at background levels through 09 Jul.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters returned to nominal levels this period. Total
field strength ranged 4-7 nT and Bz varied +6/-4 nT. Solar wind speeds
were steady at around 350 km/s and the phi was positive.

.Forecast...
An ambient solar wind environment is expected to prevail on 07 Jul.
Slightly enhanced solar wind conditions are likely over 08-09 Jul in
response to positive polarity CH HSS influences.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be mostly quiet on 07 Jul.
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected over 08-09 Jul, with periods
of active conditions likely on 08 Jul, in response to positive polarity
CH HSS influences.