764
FXXX12 KWNP 051231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Jul 05 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels with R1 (Minor) conditions
observed. An M1.0 flare and type-II radio sweep at 04/1425 UTC
originated from the vicinity of Region 3723 (S18W82), which remained
spotless. An M1.4 flare and type-II sweep at 04/2005 UTC originated in
the vicinity of Region 3730 (S18W90), another spotless region. Region
3733 (N03W48, Dki/beta) continued to increase in size while Region 3729
(S04W45, Cai/beta) was in a decaying trend. Newly numbered Region 3738
(S09E70, Dai/beta) rotated further onto the visible disk from the E
limb. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph
imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low over 05-07 Jul with a chance for
M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels over 05-07 Jul. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
is expected to persist at background levels through 07 Jul.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment was enhanced throughout the period due to the
influences of a passing CME. Total field strength reached 12 nT and the
Bz component briefly reached as far south as -8 nT for the first hour of
the reporting period. Solar wind speed ranged from 320-380 km/s. Phi
angle was mostly positive.

.Forecast...
Disturbed solar wind conditions due to CME influences are expected to
continue into 05 Jun. Nominal solar wind conditions are expected to
prevail on 06-07 Jul.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet and unsettled.

.Forecast...
Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 05 Jul, with a chance for
active conditions, due to CME influences. Mostly quiet conditions are
expected to prevail over 06-07 Jul.