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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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354 FXUS63 KDDC 201906 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 206 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a 20-30% chance for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across portions of southwest Kansas this evening. - Below normal high temperatures are expected through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 WV imagery indicates a northwest flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains. Near the surface, a weak trough axis is shifting slowly east through central Kansas into eastern Kansas. Thunderstorm chances (20-30%) pick up across portions of southwest Kansas early this evening as a weak northwest flow aloft slowly intensifies across the Western High Plains. Steepening mid-level lapse rates within a northeasterly upslope flow where sufficient moisture is providing increased instability (MUCAPE values in excess of 1000 to 1500 J/kg), will set the stage for diurnally driven thunderstorm development in eastern Colorado as H5 vort maxima cycle southeast off an upper ridge axis. Storms may then spread into extreme southwest Kansas this evening where the HREF suggests a 20-30% probability of sporadic 6-hr QPF exceeding a tenth of an inch. Similar conditions are expected each day into early next week with ridging aloft holding firm across the Intermountain West through at least Tuesday according to medium range ensembles. Fairly seasonal temperatures are expected tonight with little change to the general airmass across the high plains. The HREF suggests a 40-60% probability of lows dropping below 65F across central and much of southwest Kansas with only a 10-20% probability in south central Kansas. Below normal temperatures are forecast Sunday as prevailing northeasterlies continue to reinforce a cooler airmass across the area. The HREF shows a 70-90% probability of afternoon highs nudging above 80F with similar temperatures expected Monday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1140 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through late afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will then be possible across extreme southwest Kansas early this evening, potentially affecting the vicinity of KGCK and KLBL. Otherwise, expected mainly VFR conditions to continue through early Sunday. North-northeast winds around 10 to 20kt through late afternoon are expected to gradually subside this evening as a surface trough axis edges east through central Kansas into eastern Kansas. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JJohnson AVIATION...JJohnson