![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
577 FXUS63 KDDC 062225 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 525 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will develop this afternoon across west central Kansas. - Numerous t-storms are forecast for tonight and possibly lingering into Sunday. - After a cool spell Sunday and Monday and into mid next week, hot weather will return for next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 212 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 An upper level trough will continue to dig into the Plains through Tuesday as tropical storm Beryl moves from the Gulf of Mexico, through eastern Texas and dissolves into the Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile, an upper level high will build across the western United States and move into the Plains by the late part of next week. Weak disturbances will move through the central Plains tonight through the first part of next week increasing storm chances across western Kansas. The first disturbance will move through this evening. Thunderstorms are expected to form along a trough of low pressure this afternoon across northern Kansas and continue to build southward into the forecast area this evening. The atmosphere will be very unstable this afternoon with CAPE values over 2000 J/kg and 0-6 km shear over 30 knots. In addition, surface dewpoints will reach into the upper 50s to low 60s across western Kansas. This will increase probabilities of any storms that form to be severe. Storms should remain linear decreasing the chance of a tornado, but large hail and damaging winds will be the main concern. Scattered thunderstorms continue overnight but should remain below severe limits. Heavy rain will also be possible with some of these storms increasing risk of flooding if they train over the same area. HREF ensembles show up to a 40 percent chance of over an inch of rain across portions of the forecast area through tonight. Skies will become mostly cloudy tonight with lows dipping into the low to mid 60s. Scattered thunderstorms will continue tomorrow, mainly across our eastern zones. As of now these storms do not look to be severe but small hail and gusty winds can not be ruled out with the strongest storms. Otherwise expect mostly cloudy skies across western Kansas through a majority of the day. Highs Sunday only look to reach into the upper 70s to low 80s. The upper level trough axis will pass across Kansas Monday. There is still a small chance of showers and storms, especially across the southern tier of counties with the remainder of the area staying dry. Temperatures will continue to be cool for July, with 80s for highs. Dry conditions are expected Tuesday and wednesday as the axis of the upper level trough moves east of the area, although an isolated afternoon thunderstorm can not be ruled out. The remainder of the forecast looks dry as upper level ridging builds eastward. Highs will generally be in the 80s through the end of the work week then into the 90s this weekend. Lows will generally be in the 60s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 521 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Scattered thunderstorms will spread east-southeast across west central Kansas and portions of southwest Kansas into central Kansas this evening, likely affecting the vicinitiy of KHYS and possibly KGCK and KDDC generally after 23-02Z. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions are forecast through early Sunday. South-southeast winds around 10 to 20kt are expected to persist through early Sunday as an area of low pressure in southeast Colorado shifts southeast into the Texas Panhandle. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hovorka_42 AVIATION...JJohnson