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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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416 FXUS63 KDDC 060531 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1231 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered (15% to 30%) for severe thunderstorms possible late Saturday and late Sunday across southwest Kansas - Unseasonably cool temperatures Sunday through early next week. There is less than 50% chance for highs to be above 90 degrees from Sunday through Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 257 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 The ensemble clusters are in good agreement with a northwest flow establishing itself across the Rockies and Central United States this weekend as an upper level ridge strengthens and moves slowly east from the eastern Pacific into California and the Pacific Northwest. Ensembles also show decent agreement on the timing and strength of two upper level systems that will be crossing the Central Plains late Saturday and late Sunday. This has resulted in increased confidence for the chance of thunderstorms ahead of each of these upper level systems (40-60% on Saturday and +80% on Sunday), given low-level forcing along a surface boundary in or near southwest Kansas, along with late day instability and shear. On Saturday, the storms are expected to develop along a surface boundary in eastern Colorado and northwest Kansas during the afternoon. During this time frame the potential exists for discrete supercells due to the flow being perpendicular to the boundary as they develop late in the day along with a 50-60% chance for 0-6 km shear to be >40 knots and improving late day instability. Initially, the hazards will be large hail (1-2 inches) and strong, damaging winds based on the forecast 0-6 km shear, high cloud bases, and forecast downdraft CAPE. As these storms move southeast during the evening, the risk for large hail will decrease, but strong gusty winds may still be an issue as they weaken during the overnight hours. On Sunday, a similar setup will exist ahead of our next upper level trough, with storms developing along a surface boundary that will be located in or near southwest Kansas. The main differences between Saturday and Sunday will be the timing of the upper level trough (early evening versus overnight), the location of the surface boundary late in the day, and cooler 500mb temperatures. Based on where storm development is most likely to occur late Sunday, along with 0-6 km shear >40 knots and mid-level instability ahead of the upper trough, it appears that the risk for large hail and strong gusty winds will be more widespread on Sunday across southwest Kansas. This contrasts with Saturday, when storms are expected to develop across northwest Kansas and then weaken as they move into southwest Kansas Saturday night. As for temperatures this weekend through next week, below normal seasonal temperatures (highs around 80F) can be expected on Sunday. During this time frame, both the ECMWF and NAEFS percentiles are down in the 10th to 25th percentile range, and the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index ranges from -0.6 to -0.8. This indicates high confidence (>75%) in trending towards the current NBM forecast guidance, which is near or below the 25th percentile for highs on Sunday afternoon. These cool temperatures will be followed by a slight warmup early next week. However, temperatures will stay near or below normal for this time of year, as several more upper-level systems embedded in the northwest flow are expected to cross the Central Plains, each bringing a reinforcement of cooler air into southwest Kansas. Towards the end of the work week, improving downslope flow will develop as the upper-level ridge moves closer to the Rockies. A gradual warming trend can be expected for southwest Kansas, but a dramatic warmup is not anticipated. Approximately 30-40% of the ensembles predict a stronger and deeper upper- level trough developing midweek over the Great Lakes Region/Ohio Valley, which would limit how far east and how quickly the downslope warming would occur. Additionally, the latest ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index at 00z Friday ranges from -0.5 to -0.6. Overall, temperatures next week across southwest Kansas will be in the 80s. Temperatures will approach 90 degrees towards the end of the work week, but the exact timing and extent of the warmup by Friday are still uncertain. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Light south winds will increase to 15 to 20 kts in advance of an upper level disturbance by 15-18z. By the end of the period or just after, thunderstorms over northwest Kansas could move southeast and affect the TAF sites, with a windshift to the northwest, heavy rain and small hail. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Burgert AVIATION...Finch