452
FXUS63 KDDC 061637
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1137 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will develop this
  afternoon across west central Kansas.

- Numerous t-storms are forecast for tonight and possibly
  lingering into Sunday.

- Another round of t-storms is possible late Wednesday.

- After a cool spell Sunday and Monday and into mid next week,
  hot weather will return for next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

A strong upper level trough by July standards along with cold
mid level temperatures and a southerly low level jet will set
the stage for a robust round of thunderstorms this evening into
Sunday. A surface trough in advance of the upper level system
will be situated across northwest Kansas this afternoon.
Isolated storms will form along this trough by 4 pm. Given a
narrow ribbon of 1500-2000 j/kg CAPE, and 30-40kt 0-6 km bulk
shear, these storms will be severe with hail as large as 2" in
diameter and wind gusts as high as 70 mph. The most favored area
for severe storms is across Scott, Lane, Finney and Trego
counties through 8 pm. Later this evening and overnight, a 40
kt low level jet will impinge on this initial broken line of
storms, resulting in storm maintenance through the night. Given
the west-northwesterly mid level flow and southerly low level
jet, expect storms to build southeastward across Hodgeman,
Ford, Edwards, Pawnee, Finney and adjacent counties. The various
model ensembles still indicate the possibility of heavy rain,
with 20-40% chances for 1" or greater rain across parts of
southwest and central Kansas per ICON, CMCE and GEFS ensemble
means, with best chances from Dodge City south and east where
storms become organized into a large cluster. Rain amounts will
depend on how quickly the storm complex passes through. If
propagation is slow, then rain amounts could be locally 2 to 3
inches. Keep in mind that there is still considerable
uncertainty in placement of heavy rain. But the model consensus
is that the lowest chances are near Hays and Elkhart, with
highest chances in between in vicinity of Dodge City, Jetmore,
Kinsley, Coldwater and Greensburg. Before the storms develop,
expect afternoon temperatures to reach near 90.

Cooler highs in the 70s to lower 80s are forecast for Sunday
given continued upper level troughing over the high plains and
lingering showers and thunderstorms through at least the first
half of the day. The upper level trough axis will pass across
Kansas Monday. There is still a small chance of showers and
storms, especially across the southern tier from Liberal to
Medicine Lodge. Temperatures will continue to be cool for July,
with 80s for highs. Any precipitation will be isolated Tuesday
but can`t be completely ruled out as northwesterly mid level
flow persists. Although the main upper level trough will have
passed to the east of our area by Wednesday, an embedded
disturbance is predicted to move southeastward along the back
side of the main trough by Wednesday afternoon. There is a
chance of thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.
But the various model ensembles (EPS/CMCE/ICON and GEFS) are
limited with any accompanying rainfall, with 10% or less chance
of rainfall exceeding 1", despite the high chance (>50%) of
measurable rain. Precipitation could linger into Thursday
depending on the speed of the upper level disturbance.

Much warmer temperatures are predicted for next weekend, with
highs reaching well into the 90s. Given the upper level ridging,
any t-storms will be isolated at best.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1135 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

VFR conditions will prevail with increasing mid level cloudiness
this evening. Thunderstorms will be possible this evening into
the overnight hours bringing periods of MVFR to IFR conditions.
Winds will generally be from the south through this evening,
gusting to over 20 knots this afternoon. Winds then shift to the
east to southeast overnight with a decrease in speed.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...Hovorka_42