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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA
Issued by NWS State College, PA
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638 FXUS61 KCTP 180118 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 918 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... - The cold front will continue to trek across central PA tonight along with a band of mainly stratiform rain showers. - Patchy fog is possible tonight mainly across the NW mountains and Allegheny Front. - High pressure will build in from the Great Lakes on Thursday and bring mainly fair weather with seasonable temperatures through the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... The cold front is continuing to slide east across the state just behind an area of mainly stratiform rain showers. Temperatures are quickly falling behind the front and the environment has been sufficiently worked over from today`s storms, so any lingering convection should stay sub severe. The front is moving quickly along in conjunction with the 500mb upper level trough and is expected to be in far SE PA by 06Z. Thus, the SHRA should press mainly or entirely to the S and E of our CWA before sunrise. Any rain that does fall during the overnight hours will be mainly beneficial to areas that have recently been dry. Falling dewpoints should lead to a lower threat of fog, but the temps dropping right along with them are keeping the chances for patchy fog around mainly for the northern mountains and Allegheny front. Any fog that does develop overnight should quickly lift after sunrise with lowered dewpoints behind the front and rising daytime temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... We will begin to see some relief from the excessive heat as Thursday marks the start of the beginning of a stretch of fair and seasonable weather with lower humidity during the day Thursday and all of Friday as surface high pressure builds from the Great Lakes. Upper level flow will become primarily zonal Thursday afternoon and into Friday. As a result winds on friday will be out of the north and should remain calm throughout the day. High temperatures Thursday and Friday are expected to be in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Humidity will be much more comfortable as well with afternoon dewpoints in the mid 50s to low 60s, which will be a welcome change from the last couple of days. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... On Saturday, there could still be enough moisture working into the state from the south that a shower or two could develop over the SE and/or ridge-and-valley region if the ridge tops can help nudge the moisture high enough. It`s only worth a 20pct chc at this point based both on coverage and probability. This is the only mar in an otherwise stellar weekend forecast. During the early part of the new week, the humidity levels will creep back up as the deep upper low over ern Canada slides a little more to the east and the Bermuda High pushes moisture farther to the north and into the state. The stationary boundary to our south may struggle to move northward, so we`ll keep the increase in precip chances slow for the time being. Overall, we will see muggy nights again by mid week and a gradual increase in cloud cover and PoPs. By Wed, PoPs get close to 70pct. Confidence is higher than normal in the extended pattern. Of course, confidence is lower on the day- to- day details. But, normal diurnal trends in convection have been leaned on for most of the long range. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MVFR cigs cover northwest and central PA at mid afternoon, and are overspreading southeastern airfields this afternoon with sct to nmrs rainshowers and isold ts. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous and last into the evening along and ahead of a cold front slowly pushing southeast from the Great Lakes. Storms should decrease in coverage and exit/dissipate over the south/eastern airspace between 03-06Z. There is decent model signal for post- frontal upslope low MVFR cigs particularly at KJST and potential IFR fog impacts at KBFD/KIPT late tonight into early Thursday morning. Outlook... Thu...MVFR cigs psbl northwest 1/2; low VFR elsewhere. Fri-Sun...AM valley fog. Otherwise, no sig wx/VFR. && .CLIMATE... The max temperature hit 100 degrees at Harrisburg yesterday 7/16. The last time KMDT hit 100 was back on July 19, 2020. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Bowen NEAR TERM...Bowen SHORT TERM...Bowen LONG TERM...Dangelo AVIATION...Steinbugl CLIMATE...Steinbugl