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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA
Issued by NWS State College, PA
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800 FXUS61 KCTP 190543 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 143 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will bring mainly fair weather with seasonable temperatures through the end of the week. Humidity increases a bit this weekend with some areas seeing a scattered shower or thunderstorm on Saturday, but most areas will remain dry. The next best chance for rainfall will come late Monday and Tuesday of next week as a slow moving frontal system lifts across the region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... A few high clouds will continue to linger into this evening over the eastern counties, but mainly clear skies eventually win out later tonight with the passage of the upper trough. Surface ridging, high pressure, and an associated low PW air mass should result in the coolest night we have seen a quite a while with temps close to 50 across the NW. The weakest gradient and most efficient radiational cooling is anticipated over the NW Mtns, where we have slightly undercut NBM min temp guidance. Air/water temp differences of >25 degrees should result in patchy late night fog in the deep river/stream valleys of the Alleghenies. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Another day of tolerable warmth and generally comfortable humidity levels is in store on Friday, thanks to high pressure over the region. An approaching warm front is likely to spread increasing clouds/humidity into at least Southern PA Friday night, but the odds of any rain look slim. Patchy fog could develop again Friday night into Saturday morning across the NW mtns given the increasing moisture and scattered cloud cover expected. A short wave disturbance will bring increased rain chances for the afternoon on Saturday when isolated to scattered coverage of shra/tsra develops over parts of the Laurels, SC Mountains and Central Mountains. Temps start to creep up on Saturday, along with dewpoints, but will be even more pronounced on Sunday as high temps across the south approach 90 once again Sunday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... With the large-scale, upper-level pattern next week, it appears that amplified ridge axes will stay in place across the Intermountain West, as well as from the Southwestern Atlantic into the Southeastern CONUS. In between these two ridge axes, a mean upper-level trough axis will extend from Eastern Canada into the Midwest and the Ohio Valley. In general, the above described pattern will keep excessive heat suppressed to the south and southwest of the Commonwealth. However, southwesterly flow aloft will bring increasingly humid conditions locally. Also, the proximity of the aforementioned upper trough, as well as several surface fronts, will bring the likelihood of diurnally driven (mainly during the afternoon and evening hours) showers and thunderstorms, especially in the Tuesday-Thursday time frame. The silver lining here is that additional beneficial rains could be in the offing for drought stricken sections of PA. For the most part, we can expect daytime highs in the 80s and overnight lows in the 60s, which is rather seasonable for mid to late July. Some of our northern mountainous areas may see afternoon highs stay in the upper 70s, while normally hotter sections of the Lower Susquehanna Valley could sneak into the lower 90s. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High (> 80%) confidence in VFR with unrestricted conditions through 06Z Saturday at all airfields outside of BFD. Across the northern tier of PA, patchy fog development will be possible overnight mainly after 08Z through sunrise. There remains some uncertainty on exact coverage/extent of FG, thus have outlined a brief period of VCFG at BFD with moderate (40-50%) confidence with increasing confidence (60-70%) of restrictions in the 10-12Z timeframe, thus have outlined a TEMPO group for this timeframe with 1/2SM vsby. After sunrise Friday morning, high (> 80%) confidence in VFR conditions with a light N/NW breeze (3-5KTs) throughout the early afternoon before becoming more light and variable late Friday evening into the early Saturday morning hours. Outlook... Sat-Mon...Primarily VFR/unrestricted conditions. Patchy late night/early morning fog and low ceilings are possible. Tue...More widespread PM showers and thunderstorms could lead to at least brief restrictions. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Bowen NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Bowen SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Bowen LONG TERM...Jurewicz AVIATION...NPB