038
FXUS64 KCRP 090349
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1049 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Key Messages:

-Life threatening beach conditions linger with dangerous rip
currents/coastal flooding

-A Heat Advisory is in effect today for Heat Index Values 110-114

The short term period will be relatively quiet with a trough draped
across the Central US and the remnants of Beryl moving across SE TX
this afternoon moving quickly off to the northeast. The synoptic
pattern shifts slightly east and no other changes are in store for
this period. Some lingering moisture from Beryl has been noted on
radar off shore and wrapping around Brownsville. Have 20-35% PoP`s
for a low chance for additional showers across our CWA tomorrow in
response to this moisture. The seabreeze in the afternoon may help
trigger some thunderstorms in the afternoon as well.

Afternoon temperatures today and tomorrow are a bit warmer behind
Beryl with clearer skies allowing for more surface heating.
Generally expect highs around 90-100 degrees both days with
overnight lows in the mid-70s to around 80. Heat Indices are
expected to climb to 110-114 degrees along the southern Coastal Bend
and a Heat Advisory is in effect until 7 PM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Near normal temperatures are expected for mid to late week before
warming up as we head into the weekend. Scattered showers and storms
are possible along the sea breeze Wednesday and Thursday
afternoons before becoming more isolated Friday and beyond.

An H5 trough will be in the process of lifting out of the middle of
the country as a ridge builds over the Gulf of Mexico later in the
week. H5 heights increase to 591dm or so, which will put a little
bit of a lid on afternoon rain chances starting Friday. As a result
of lowering rain chances, temperatures will start to creep up into
the middle 90s for the Coastal Plains to the upper 90s to near 100
across the Brush Country this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1037 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Not much change with this package. Patchy fog will be
possible over VCT/ALI from 09-13Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail through the period with light variable winds early this
morning shifting southeasterly through the day. There is a low
20-35% chance of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon
across South Texas, thanks to lingering moisture and the seabreeze.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 7PM this evening, as
lingering impacts from Beryl will persist through the day in the
form of very high seas and gusty winds. Isolated showers or
thunderstorms will continue to linger into tomorrow afternoon.
Expect moderate southwesterly flow to become weak onshore flow by
tomorrow afternoon. Surface high pressure across the northern Gulf
of Mexico will provide mostly favorable marine conditions
Wednesday and beyond. Light to moderate southeasterly winds are
expected with seas generally running between 1 to 3 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    79  95  79  93 /  10  20  10  40
Victoria          77  93  75  93 /  10  30  10  50
Laredo            80 101  78  98 /  10  30  20  40
Alice             77  99  76  96 /  10  20  10  50
Rockport          82  93  80  93 /  10  20  10  50
Cotulla           80 101  78  99 /  10  30  20  40
Kingsville        78  98  77  94 /  10  20  10  50
Navy Corpus       82  91  81  90 /  10  10  10  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BF
LONG TERM....XX
AVIATION...EMF/94