772
FXUS64 KCRP 110114
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
814 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 806 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Atmosphere is worked over from diurnal convection with only a few
cells remaining over Kleberg County and along the immediate coast. Mid-
high level cloud shield out west will move eastward across the
brush country and coastal plains the next few hours before
dissipating. Some light to moderate precipitation can be expected
and thus have updated PoPs to account for this. Otherwise expect
light and variable winds. Temperatures will remain steady in the
mid to upper 70 and infact are already near their overnight
minimums.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Key Messages:

- Showers and Thunderstorms will continue through sunset, then again
  tomorrow

- Heat index values tomorrow from 100-105 degrees

An active radar can be seen this afternoon with most of the
activity now focused over the northern Coastal Plains into the
Victoria Crossroads and Deep South Texas. As the seabreeze
continues to push westward, additional showers and thunderstorms
are expected to develop across the Brush Country and move into the
Rio Grande Plains this evening. As we lose daytime heating
heading into the sunset hours, showers and thunderstorms are
expected to taper off. This will lead to a mild and dry night
tonight with a low chance of patchy fog across the Coastal Plains
and Victoria Crossroads.

With PWATs remaining elevated through the short term ranging from
2.05-2.30" along with the passage of a shortwave tomorrow, there is
a medium to high chance for showers and thunderstorm to develop
once tomorrow. Similarly to today, showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop along the Coastal Bend during the late morning
to early afternoon hours and move westward into the Coastal
Plains and Brush Country in the afternoon. Rain chances are once
again expected to taper off tomorrow evening with the loss of
daytime heating.

With the increased cloud cover and precipitation, near normal
temperatures are expected tomorrow with slightly milder overnight
temperatures. The cloud cover will also help keep the heat index at
bay tomorrow, however, heat indices are still expected to climb into
the 100-105 degree range during the afternoon hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

No major changes were needed for the long-term forecast. Early in
the period, we are set to experience sea breeze induced shower and
thunderstorm activity due to above-normal PWATS (2.00 - 2.25 inches)
and the presence of a mid-level trough over the region. By Sunday,
this trough is expected to propagate out, and a strong mid-level
ridge will build over Texas, allowing for PWAT values to be closer
to normal. This shift will lead to drier conditions early next week,
accompanied by a gradual warming trend. Temperatures through the
weekend and into next week will remain typical for this time of
year, with highs from the low 90s to low 100 and lows from the mid
70s to low 80s. Heat indices will generally be between 100 and 110
degrees for most of the period. By Monday and Tuesday, the Southern
Coastal Plains and portions of the Brush Country may approach heat
advisory criteria.&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

VFR conditions are expected throughout this TAF cycle for most
sites with isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon as
the seabreeze moves in. Rain chances will taper off this evening
as winds become light and variable. There is a low chance that fog
could develop tonight across a few sites dropping visibilities
down to MVFR/IFR categories. Due to ASOS communication issues, we
will not be able to monitor ALI and COT, therefore, went with the
AMD NOT SKED for this those sites.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

VFR conditions are expected throughout this TAF cycle for most
sites with isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon as
the seabreeze moves in. Rain chances will taper off this evening
as winds become light and variable. There is a low chance that fog
could develop tonight across a few sites dropping visibilities
down to MVFR/IFR categories. Due to ASOS communication issues, we
will not be able to monitor ALI and COT, therefore, went with the
AMD NOT SKED for this those sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 336 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Weak onshore flow is expected tonight through tomorrow night. Rain
chances will remain on the low end tonight increasing to medium
tomorrow and tomorrow night. Weak to moderate onshore flow will
develop Friday and persist into early next week. Daily isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through the
weekend, with mainly dry conditions expected early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    77  90  77  90 /  30  60  30  50
Victoria          75  91  75  90 /  40  60  20  70
Laredo            77  92  76  93 /  40  60  20  40
Alice             75  92  74  93 /  40  70  20  50
Rockport          79  92  78  92 /  30  50  40  50
Cotulla           77  95  76  95 /  40  40  20  40
Kingsville        77  91  76  92 /  30  70  30  50
Navy Corpus       79  89  81  90 /  50  50  40  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM/75
LONG TERM....EMF/94
AVIATION...JM/75