223
FXUS64 KCRP 120846
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
346 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Showers are beginning to develop this morning and will expect
additional development as we head through the morning hours as a
tropical wave passes south of the region and we remain under an
area of troughing between high pressure centers northwest and east
of South Texas. CAPE values along the coast this morning between
1k and 1.5k with 20-50 g/kg of moisture flux convergence. Would
expect to see thunderstorms developing eventually. The exact
evolution of the convection today is a bit unclear as temperatures
could stay low enough to not develop much of a sea breeze this
afternoon to bring any organization to the activity. Several
deterministic models keep high temperatures in the 80s across much
of our area. Have gone a bit above these, but below the NBM that
indicates temps in the lower to mid 90s.

Convection should wane this evening as tropical wave is west
along with the deepest of the associated moisture. On Saturday,
one final wave of moisture shifts north through the area and will
bring another chance for showers and storms. The greatest chance
on Saturday will be over the northern Coastal Plains and Victoria
Crossroads.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Key Messages:

- Moderate to major risk of heat related impacts by mid-week.

On Sunday, mid/upper level high pressure takes over S TX, bringing
drier mid levels to the area. PWATs lower to around 1.5 inches
across the Rio Grande Plains to 1.9 inches across the Coastal Bend.
This is still sufficient moisture for isolated (<10%) afternoon sea
breeze convection, but most of S TX will be dry. This trend
continues through Tuesday. An upper long wave trough draped west of
the area is progged to shift slightly east by Wednesday leading to a
slight increase in moisture and rain chances, but chances are still
low (<20%).

Main concern for next week will be the heat. A gradual warming trend
will lead to highs in the lower 90s along the inland coastal areas
to around 100 across the Rio Grande Plains by Tuesday-Thursday.
Humid conditions combined with these higher temperatures will lead
to heat indices of 105 to 110 by Wednesday. Some locations across
the Coastal Bend and Brush Country could briefly see heat indices of
110-114. There is a moderate to major risk of heat related impacts
by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

VFR conditions are currently in place across all terminals with
the exception of ALI where MVFR ceilings have recently developed.
Expecting ALI to fluctuate between VFR and MVFR through the
night. Brief MVFR ceilings are possible at COT/LRD from roughly
09-13Z. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop Friday
morning, generally impacting ALI/CRP/VCT. After a brief lull
during the late morning hours, activity will redevelop along the
seabreeze. Convection will wane after 00Z with the loss of daytime
heating.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Mainly light south to southeasterly flow is expected today into
Saturday. There is also a medium chance for showers and
thunderstorms, especially near the coast. A weak to moderate
onshore flow can be expected for the upcoming week along with
drier conditions. The chance for showers and thunderstorms is low
and confined to mainly the offshore waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    89  78  91  78 /  40  10  30   0
Victoria          89  76  90  75 /  50  10  50   0
Laredo            90  77  95  77 /  40  40  20  10
Alice             90  76  93  75 /  40  10  30   0
Rockport          90  81  91  82 /  50  20  30   0
Cotulla           92  77  93  77 /  40  30  20  10
Kingsville        89  78  92  76 /  40  10  30   0
Navy Corpus       89  82  90  82 /  40  20  20   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PH/83
LONG TERM....TE/81
AVIATION...TC