472
FXUS64 KCRP 192323
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
623 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Somewhat similar pattern this afternoon/evening that we had
yesterday with spotty convection due to 1700 J/kg CAPEs, 15 knots of
shear (sfc-6km), and a 500 mb shortwave trough moving through South
Texas. So, lots of pop up showers and thunderstorms firing along the
boundaries, and then dissipating. The showers and thunderstorms
should be isolated through the evening, before we lose the heat of
the day, and showers diminish. Going into the evening the 500 mb
shortwave rotates east of the region, as well, which should lead to
another warm, muggy night with showers and thunderstorms possible,
mainly over the Gulf, but an isolated shower or thunderstorm could
stray onshore. The afternoon looks to still be able to kick off some
showers and thunderstorms in the Victoria Crossroads as the tail of
the 500 mb shortwave leaves SE Texas. Temperatures will again rise
to 90-100F for the High Saturday, and with the min RH ranging from
35-70% will expect that we will heat indices will range from 105 to
109F again with a few locations briefly flirting with 110F. So
mainly a moderate heat risk is expected for Saturday. Saturday
night, it looks like we get into weak ridging aloft so we should be
rain free, other than streamers over the Gulf. However, as we get
closer to Sunday morning, a tropical wave will approach the Gulf
Coast which will set us up for a wetter pattern in the upcoming
week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

An upper-level trough will continue to deepen across the Mid to
Upper Mississippi to Ohio River Valley late in the weekend through
mid-next week while extending southwestward into our area. The
combination of the trough aloft, the arrival of deep Gulf moisture
and several mid level disturbances will lead to increased rain and
thunderstorm chances through the period. Sunday will start off the
Extended period with PoPs at around 20-50% over the eastern half of
the CWA. Then chances increase and expand westward Monday through
Wednesday next week, persisting through the end of the work week.
Highest PoPs though, can be expected Tuesday to Wednesday during the
day, when probabilities reach a 60-80% areawide. Accumulations of
around 1-3 inches are forecast through late week across South Texas,
with the highest amounts expected over the Coastal Plains and
Victoria Crossroads. With this in mind, WPC has continued to carry a
Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall Monday through Wednesday
morning. In terms of the HeatRisk, it will remain at Minor to
Moderate through the end of the week. No other hazards are expected
at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

VFR conditions are generally expected throughout this TAF cycle
with light winds. Thunderstorms associated with the sea breeze
are currently impacting ALI and COT. These storms should dissipate
within the next few hours with the loss of daytime heating.
Otherwise, there is a medium chance for ALI to fall into MVFR
conditions between 10-13z tomorrow morning with the development of
patchy fog.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Weak to occasionally moderate south to southeasterly flow will
persist through the middle of next week. Winds may become variable
at times through Saturday, as a boundary nears the region. Low to
medium rain chances of 20 to 50 percent through the weekend will
increase to medium to high chances of 50 to 80 percent heading
into the middle of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    97  77  94  78 /  20  10  20   0
Victoria          95  74  93  75 /  30  20  30   0
Laredo           101  78  99  77 /  10  10  10   0
Alice             99  75  97  75 /  20  10  20   0
Rockport          93  79  92  80 /  20  20  20   0
Cotulla          100  76  99  77 /  30   0  10   0
Kingsville        98  76  96  76 /  20  10  20   0
Navy Corpus       93  79  90  81 /  20  20  20   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM....ANM
AVIATION...JCP/84