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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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995 FXUS64 KCRP 141118 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 618 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 250 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Deep moisture is on the decline through the area with PWAT values on the Saturday evening of 2.04 and expected to be lower this morning. This, along with building high pressure will result in a mainly dry and quiet short term period. We do have a slight chance for showers in the Victoria Crossroads today though as one last bit of vorticity shifts through north of the building ridge. Temperatures return to seasonal levels with lows in 90s across South Texas. Continued high dewpoints will result in heat indices generally between 105 and 109. A few locations could top 110, but should be brief and isolated and will not issue a heat advy at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 250 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Key Messages: - Generally a minor to moderate risk of heat related impacts for the upcoming week. - Increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms by the end of the week and into next weekend. The forecast for the upcoming week still looks fairly dry Tuesday and Wednesday with increasing rain chances the latter part of the week and into the weekend. Mid/upper level high pressure is progged to remain situated across the northern Gulf of Mexico with another high pressure over the Desert Southwest with a weakness in between the two that stretches across Mexico into W and S TX. Despite the weakness aloft, moisture will be somewhat limited, thus the low (<10%) chance of convection on Tuesday. A little deeper moisture is progged across the Victoria Crossroads by Wednesday with PWATs around 2 inches, leading to a low to medium (20-30%) chance of convection. Models indicate a deepening low pressure system across the northern plains that will stretch southward and merge with the low over Mexico through Thursday and Friday providing better upper support and bringing higher rain chances to S TX. This upper level system is forecast to bring a cold front into east TX by Thursday. This would provide stronger low level moisture convergence across the northeastern CWA by Friday. Deeper moisture is also forecast to be in place across S TX with PWATs of 2.0-2.2 inches. These features combined with an unstable airmass leads to a medium (30-50%) across the Victoria Crossroads and a low chance (20%) across the remainder of S TX on Friday. The cold front is not expected to make it through S TX, but could stall just north of the CWA. There is the potential that any convection that develops across Central and East TX along the stalled front, could produce an outflow boundary that could make it through S TX with convection firing along the outflow boundary, thus mimicking the actual cold front. Regardless, it would likely washout quickly with winds returning to an onshore flow. Rain chances are expected to continue into the weekend. As for temperatures, overall are expected to be near normal through the extended. Highs are forecast to be in the lower 90s along the inland coastal areas to around 100 across the Rio Grande Plains Tuesday through Thursday, then a couple of degrees cooler through the weekend. Humid conditions combined with these higher temperatures will lead to heat indices of 105 to 109. A few locations across the Coastal Bend and Brush Country could briefly see heat indices of 110-113. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 611 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Fog is noted this morning at ALI and VCT terminals with LIFR conditions at ALI briefly. COT and LRD sites have also been in and out of MVFR CIGS early this morning. Expect VFR conditions at all sites by mid-morning, then persisting through the day. An isolated shower or storm is possible at VCT site, but chances too small to mention in TAF at this time. Likely a repeat tonight of what we`re seeing this morning. Have tempo MVFR conditions mentioned in most tafs. && .MARINE... Issued at 250 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 A weak to moderate onshore flow can be expected for the upcoming week along with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms the latter half of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 93 78 93 77 / 10 0 0 0 Victoria 93 75 93 75 / 20 10 10 0 Laredo 97 76 97 77 / 0 10 0 0 Alice 96 75 97 75 / 10 0 0 0 Rockport 93 79 92 81 / 10 0 0 0 Cotulla 98 76 99 76 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 94 76 94 76 / 10 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 91 79 90 82 / 10 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...PH LONG TERM....TE AVIATION...PH/83