746
FXUS64 KCRP 151743
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1243 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 204 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Key Messages:

- Minor to moderate risk of heat related impacts Today and Tuesday.

The next couple of days look fairly quiet with near normal
temperatures and weak to moderate south to southeast winds.

South Texas will remain sandwiched between two mid/upper level high
pressure systems. One high is situated across the northern Gulf of
Mexico and southern U.S. while the other high is centered across the
western U.S. There is an inverted trough draped southwest to
northeast across Mexico and stretches toward another long wave
trough located from TX toward the Great Lakes. This puts S and E TX
under a col or saddle point of the synoptic weather pattern.

Despite the weakness aloft, moisture will remain limited with PWATs
generally around 1.5 inches. Thus, rain chances are very low (<10%)
but can not rule out a rogue shower along the sea breeze.

Highs will be near normal, however, with humid conditions the Heat
Index is expected to range from 100-109 each afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 204 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Key Messages:

- Generally moderate risk of heat related impacts for the week

- Increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms by the end of the
  week and into next weekend

The long term forecast opens up with South Texas wedged in between
upper level ridging to our west and east and a trough to our north.
An overall weakness in the flow will allow for some H5 vorticity to
stream through as impulses rotate around the periphery of the
ridging and troughing aloft. Our PWATs don`t look too impressive
through the middle of the week so will maintain a low chance of
showers and thunderstorms with activity generally confined to the
sea breeze.

Towards the end of the work week, the upper trough will deepen
across the Great Lakes and send a cold front south across the state.
Still not fully sold on the idea that the front makes it all the way
to South Texas but some guidance is starting to hint at that
possibility. Regardless, we can expect an increase in showers and
storms as moisture pools ahead of the boundary. While the greatest
upper level support looks to stay to our north, increased low level
convergence and ample moisture will help support moderate chances
for showers and thunderstorms Friday through the weekend.

High temperatures through the period will top out in the low 90s to
around 100 degrees. If the front does make it all the way here, we
could trim off a few degrees due to increased cloud cover and rain
chances. Most of South Texas will experience a moderate heat risk
each day as heat indices tend to settle into the 105-109 range.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

VFR conditions will generally prevail through the cycle at area
terminals, with a brief period between 09-12Z Tuesday for MVFR
levels at ALI/VCT sites. Otherwise, winds will remain out of the
south and southeast through Tuesday, increasing to around 12 knots
this afternoon. Winds will become light and variable again
overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 204 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

A weak to moderate onshore flow will continue today through
Tuesday. A weak to moderate south to southeasterly flow will
continue through the weekend. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms beginning Wednesday with the best chances coming
over the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    92  78  93  79 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          93  75  93  76 /  10   0  10   0
Laredo            97  76  98  78 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             96  75  97  76 /   0   0  10   0
Rockport          92  81  93  81 /   0   0  10   0
Cotulla           99  75 101  77 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        95  77  95  78 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       90  82  90  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TC
AVIATION...ANM/88