512
FXUS64 KCRP 070545
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1245 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 514 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

A stalled boundary across I-10 has gradually been moving
southward and is now about to enter the Victoria Crossroads. As
the boundary moves southward, it`s triggering thunderstorms which
are capable of small hail and wind gusts up to 40 mph. This
activity should continue and diminish as we approach sunset and
lose daytime heating.

As for Tropical Storm Beryl, it continues to approach the coast,
the hurricane and tropical storm watches have been upgraded to a
hurricane and tropical storm warnings. Likewise, the storm surge
watch has been upgraded to a storm surge warning for all coastal
areas north of the north entrance of Padre Island National
Seashore. Storm surge of 4-6 feet is expected north of Mesquite
Bay and 3-5 south of Mesquite Bay.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 108 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Key Messages:

- All of South Texas interests should continue to monitor the
  progress of Beryl

- Rain chances increase Sunday and continue into next week.

- Hurricane Watch, Storm Surge Watch and Tropical Storm Watch are
  in effect along the Middle Texas Coast

All eyes are on Tropical Storm Beryl as it continues to move west-
northwest across the Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center
is forecasting Beryl to strengthen into a hurricane making
landfall as a high end category 1, however, a category 2 cannot be
ruled out. With hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge
expected along the Middle Texas Coast in the next 48 hours,
Hurricane Watches and Storm Surge Watches are in effect. Rain
chances are expected to pick up across the Gulf waters and Coastal
Bend Sunday and extending inland to the Coastal Plains and
Victoria Crossroads Sunday night, increasing in coverage Monday.

While everyone is focused on the landfall location, all of South
Texas should prepare for the dangerous hazards and impacts that will
be felt away from the center of the storm. Regardless of where Beryl
eventually makes landfall, all of South Texas east of Webb and
LaSalle counties can expect periods of heavy rain, strong winds and
isolated to scattered tornadoes. Due to the heavy rain threat, Duval
and McMullen counties remain under a Marginal Risk (at least 5%
chance of flash flooding) of excessive rain Sunday through
Tuesday across the Coastal Plains and southern Coastal Bend under
a Slight Risk (at least a 15% chance of flash flooding) of
excessive rainfall Sunday and Monday dropping to a Marginal Risk
Tuesday. Across the Victoria Crossroads where the rainfall threat
will be the greatest given the latest forecast track, WPC has
highlighted that area under a Slight Risk Sunday increasing to a
Moderate Risk (at least 40% of flash flooding) Monday with
significant flooding possible. Due to the high probability of
flash flooding, we will be issuing Flood Watch for the Victoria
Crossroads and northern Coastal Bend.

For more information with Tropical Storm Beryl, please refer to
our most recent Hurricane Local Statement.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 108 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

As we head into the middle portion of next week, rain chances
associated with Beryl will gradually decrease as it races to the
northeast. Low to medium chances for rain will linger through the
latter half of the week. In the wake of Tropical Storm Beryl mid
to late this week, temperatures will increase back to slightly
above normal with heat index values between 105-109 degrees with a
low chance for heat index values to increase to 110-113 degrees
for a few hours each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

VFR conditions are expected most of tonight with brief periods of
MVFR for ALI, CRP and VCT, then conditions deteriorate through
the day Sunday. Rain bands are beginning to move westward into the
Middle Texas Coastal Waters and are expected to move inland
toward CRP and VCT overnight, with chances increasing around 10Z.
ALI may begin seeing convection by mid morning. The chance of
showers and thunderstorms will increase across the Coastal Bend
and Victoria Crossroads through Sunday afternoon and evening.
Based on the latest forecast track of Beryl, winds are expected to
increase out of the northeast, especially Sunday evening when
gusts around 30 knots will be possible at CRP and gusts to 35
knots or higher at VCT Sunday overnight. The forecast of timing
and strength of the stronger winds will likely be adjusted as
Beryl approaches the TX coast. LRD and COT are expected to remain
rain free with generally VFR conditions through the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 108 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Conditions will begin to deteriorate later today with seas
increasing from east to west ahead of Tropical Storm Beryl. Winds
will rapidly increase Sunday into Sunday night. Hurricane
conditions are expected Sunday night and Monday with wave heights
up to 25-30 feet. Gradually improving conditions can be expected
by mid- week. Expect widespread showers and thunderstorms Sunday
through Monday, with scattered thunderstorms lingering into mid-
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    78  91  78  95 /  50  70  40  30
Victoria          77  83  75  90 /  50  80  50  50
Laredo            79  99  79 101 /   0  30  20  20
Alice             78  94  76  98 /  30  60  30  30
Rockport          79  91  79  94 /  60  80  50  40
Cotulla           80  98  77 100 /   0  30  20  20
Kingsville        78  93  77  96 /  40  60  30  30
Navy Corpus       79  91  81  92 /  60  70  50  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Hurricane Warning for TXZ234-245>247-342>347-442-443-447.

     Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ232-233-242>244.

     Flood Watch from late tonight through Monday evening for TXZ233-
     234-245>247-346-347-447.

     Storm Surge Warning for TXZ245-343>347-443-447.

     Storm Surge Watch for TXZ342-442.

     High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for TXZ345-442-443-
     447.

GM...Hurricane Warning for GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCP
LONG TERM....JCP
AVIATION...TE/81