928
FXUS64 KCRP 060503
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1203 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 554 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Key Message:

- HIGH risk of rip currents will continue through the weekend

- Check long-term discussion below and the Local Hurricane
  Statement for details regarding Beryl

Other than hazardous swimming conditions caused by very long swell
periods over 10 seconds resulting in dangerous rip currents,
weather is benign across South Texas through Saturday night. There
is a low (20-30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday,
temperatures will be very warm tomorrow before cloud cover and
moisture ramps up early next week. Please give your focus to the
long term and the local hurricane statement issued.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 554 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Key Messages:

- All of South Texas interests should make sure their preparedness
plans are in order and stay informed regarding Beryl.

- Rain chances increase Sunday and continue into next week.

- Hazardous marine conditions continue this weekend into next week.

Sunday will start off partly to mostly cloudy as Beryl moves across
the Gulf. Rain bands are expected to move onshore for south Texas by
late morning as the winds begin to push the surge more into the
shore.

Beryl, itself is currently a Tropical Storm as it moves WNW around
15 mph over the northern Yucatan Peninsula. Beryl will emerge into
the Southwest Gulf of Mexico later this evening and track
northwestward towards the Lower to Middle Texas Coast. This system
is expected to restrengthen through the weekend, reaching hurricane
status by Sunday. Beryl is relatively compact in size with tropical
storm force winds currently extending up to 105 miles to the
northeast from its center. Beryl has consistently nudged eastward
with each update and is now forecast to make landfall sometime
Monday along the Lower to Middle Texas Coast.

Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches are now in effect along the Middle
Texas Coast. In addition, there are several potentially hazardous
impacts to the region. The threats include:

- Winds: Sustained winds 60-80 mph with gusts up to 95 mph will be
possible within the eyewall of Beryl along the coast and islands.

- Coastal Flooding: Significant storm surge with peak inundation up
to 5 feet possible across the Middle Texas Coast including the bays
between Baffin Bay and Matagorda Bay. Greatest threat for storm
surge is from Sunday night through Monday evening.

- Flash Flooding: Elevated to moderate threat of flash flooding
Sunday into early next week. Rainfall up to 3" over the Brush
Country and 5-10" over the Coastal Plains with isolated amounts up
to 15".

- Tornadoes: Isolated tornadoes and waterspouts will be possible,
mainly on Sunday into Monday embedded within outer rain bands of
Beryl.

- Hazardous Seas: Wave heights 20-30 feet.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through Saturday evening ahead of
Hurricane Beryl`s arrival with the typical summer time pattern
holding strong. Brief MVFR conditions are expected in the
morning, with reduced visibility for ALI and VCT. Winds will
remain light through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 554 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Weak to moderate onshore flow will persist through Sunday
morning, gradually increasing out of the northeast throughout the
day as Hurricane Beryl approaches. While uncertainty is still
high on timing and actual track, elevated seas up to 14 to 19 feet
occasionally to 24 feet can be expected late this weekend into
early next week with tropical storm or hurricane conditions
possible as Beryl approaches the northeastern Mexico and South
Texas coastlines. Rain chances will increase Sunday with medium to
high chances hanging around through mid to late next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    76  95  79  92 /   0  10  10  30
Victoria          75  96  76  92 /   0  30  10  40
Laredo            75 100  77  98 /   0   0   0  10
Alice             73  99  75  95 /   0  10   0  30
Rockport          81  95  81  92 /   0  10  10  40
Cotulla           77 103  77 101 /   0  10   0  10
Kingsville        75  97  77  92 /   0  10  10  30
Navy Corpus       81  91  82  89 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Hurricane Watch for TXZ245-342>347-442-443-447.

     Storm Surge Watch for TXZ245-342>347-442-443-447.

     High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for TXZ345-442-
     443-447.

GM...Hurricane Watch for GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EMF
LONG TERM....JSL
AVIATION...LS/77