255
FXUS61 KCLE 130116
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
916 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will become dominant tonight and persist through
Saturday night. A warm front will move north across the area on
Sunday before stalling across the central Great Lakes region on
Monday and Tuesday before moving southeast as a cold front on
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Two very small showers remain in Northeast Ohio, but the returns
are diminishing quickly. Have a one hour rain mention for these
areas before maintain a dry forecast overnight. The rest of the
forecast remains generally on track.

630 PM Update...
A couple showers remain along a line from just east of Akron to
just north of Upper Sandusky. A stabilizing atmosphere this
evening should allow for convective activity to completely
fizzle over the next hour or two. There should be an opportunity
for the atmosphere to decouple tonight and have kept a large
area of patchy fog in the forecast.

Original Discussion...
Isolated thunderstorms have developed west of I-71 and are
primarily driven by enhanced diurnal instability with CAPE
values approaching 1500-2000 J/kg. Primary threat through the
afternoon with any storms will be heavy rain and gusty winds,
although there is a non-zero potential for small hail as well.
By tonight, high pressure become dominant and showers should end
as a drier airmass aloft begins to move east. A weak low- level
inversion is forecast to develop across the far northern
corners of the CWA, which coupled with weak winds overnight,
could result in patchy dense fog developing. Highest confidence
in fog development is in NW OH and NE OH and NW PA, along with
any areas that it rains this afternoon/evening. Overnight lows
will drop into the mid to upper 60s.

Fog will quickly lift Saturday morning, resulting in a rather
pleasant Saturday across the area. There is a non-zero chance of
isolated showers and thunderstorms developing again Saturday
afternoon/evening as instability increasing throughout the day
and an area of enhanced moisture traverse areas along and east
of I71, where the best chance will be. There is a non-zero
chance for areas west of the corridor, but with limited
moisture it will be more difficult to get showers/storms. Highs
on Saturday will climb into the mid to upper 80s, with the
exception of the immediate lakeshore which will only climb into
the upper 70s to low 80s.

On Saturday night, a strong low-level inversion will move into
the area and set up the potential for more widespread, dense fog
to develop across the area. Again the best chances will be in
areas that receive rainfall, but with the inversion wouldn`t be
surprised to at least see patchy dense fog across the entire
CWA. Overnight lows on Saturday will drop into mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Active weather pattern through the short term period as northwest
flow dominates the Great Lakes region through Monday night. Ridging
with hot/humid conditions will build northward through the Ohio
Valley into the local area. Modest instability builds into the local
area Sunday and increases a bit Monday, however very unstable
conditions upstream in the upper Midwest will allow for MCS
development that will track towards the area during the period. Low
confidence in timing and details with this type of ring of fire
pattern, however the best chances for thunderstorm activity to move
through the area look to be during the day Sunday, which may be in
the form of decaying activity that sustains or re-intensifies
through across the area. Additional upstream development may
manifest Sunday night that may impact the area again during the day
on Monday. This would be supported with a bit more instability
locally. Have maintained chance pops during this period given the
uncertainty with the details. Highs Sunday and Monday will generally
be in the upper 80s to low 90s, with Monday being a degree or two
warmer than Sunday. Lows Sunday night into Monday night will be in
the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Pattern changes begins Tuesday into Wednesday as upper low/trough
digs south into the Great Lakes region, forcing a cold front
southeast across the local area Tuesday night into Wednesday. This
will bring showers and storms to the area, with the best chances in
the Tuesday afternoon/night time frame, with likely pops reflected
in the forecast. Front will move south into the Ohio Valley
Wednesday night into Thursday as high pressure builds into the area
through Friday, providing cooler and drier conditions. After one
last day of heat, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s Tuesday,
highs will remain in the upper 70s to low 80s Wednesday through
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Shower activity is waning this evening with sunset and there
should not be any additional terminal impacts this evening. The
atmosphere will have a chance to decouple tonight and with dew
points in the mid to upper 60s, there will be a chance for fog
to form and have visibility restrictions at most terminals. There
are low dew points to contend with at KMFD and KCAK and have no
fog or mist mention there. Some additional showers should form
on Saturday with Northeast Ohio and NW PA being the favored
areas. Have some windows of vicinity showers with 5 kft clouds
during the afternoon. Like this evening, all activity should be
done by 00z/Sun. Winds through the period will be light -
largely variable through morning and favoring north to northwest
for Saturday afternoon.

Outlook...Periodic rounds of showers and thunderstorms with
non-VFR may be possible this Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure over the weekend will keep conditions quiet on the
lake. Light winds tonight through Saturday night will increase a bit
out of the southwest Sunday and Monday before a cold front moves
towards the lake from the northwest on Tuesday. Southwest winds will
ramp up a bit Tuesday, perhaps in the 15-20 kt range, before
becoming northwest Tuesday night into Wednesday with the front
pushing south of the lake.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...Campbell/Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Greenawalt
LONG TERM...Greenawalt
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Greenawalt