199
FXUS61 KCLE 052344
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
744 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move east through the area tonight. High
pressure will then build across the region by Saturday night and
persist into early next week. Another cold front will move east
across the area on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
7:00 PM Update...
No changes were made to the forecast with this update.

Previous Discussion...
Main concern for the near term period will be over the next
several hours as cloud/rain debris from an upstream, remnant
convective complex exits east of the region, allowing potential
redevelopment of mainly showers with some embedded thunder just
ahead of an approaching cold front. Recent day cloud phase
distinction satellite imagery has revealed slightly more robust
glaciating cloud tops just west of the I-75 corridor. However,
the widespread cloud debris has kept the mid- levels fairly
capped which will limit the overall storm intensity, regardless
of the more impressive mid and upper-level dynamics at play.
Anticipate any remaining convective activity to subside
following sunset as surface- based CAPE diminishes.

The cold front will eventually move east through the area later
this evening and overnight, with a subsequent surface trough
expected to linger across the Lower Great Lakes region on
Saturday. This trough could kick off some additional isolated
shower/thunderstorm chances in the afternoon hours, particularly
across far NE OH and NW PA, though moisture will be much more
limited. Temperatures will be near to slightly below average on
Saturday, with highs in the lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet weather for Sunday and Monday as high pressure begins overhead
and drifts to the east. An upper trough and associated cold front
begins moving out of the central U.S. and into the Great Lakes
Monday night, with modest lift and moisture return ahead of the
trough allowing low POPs for showers to begin encroaching from the
west. Most of the area should remain rain-free all of Monday night
but some activity may push into Northwest Ohio late. Highs on Sunday
will surge well into the 80s, with highs on Monday near 90 or into
the low 90s as 850mb temperatures surge to around +20C. Heat index
values in the low to mid 90s are possible Monday afternoon.
Overnight lows will dip well into the 60s Sunday night but will
struggle to cool below the upper 60s/lower 70s Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A trough is expected to work west to east across the Great Lakes
Tuesday into Tuesday evening, pushing a weak cold front into the
local area. Have POPs increasing to 40-60% Tuesday into Tuesday
evening as a result. The airmass looks to become rather sultry once
again, though poor mid-level lapse rates, the strongest forcing
passing to our north, and potential for rather extensive cloud cover
makes coverage of convection and any heavy rain/severe weather
potential highly uncertain. Models have actually lost some agreement
on the exact timing of the front and amount/placement of QPF, so
POPs for Tuesday and Tuesday evening have been lowered a bit from
the prior cycle. While the front should shift to our south Tuesday
night into Wednesday we will be beneath somewhat active flow aloft
between ridging off the East Coast and troughing stretching form the
upper Midwest to southeastern Canada. This type of pattern often
yields intermittent chances for isolated to scattered
showers/storms, so didn`t carry a completely dry forecast for
Wednesday or Thursday. However, the POPs are low and suspect those
days will feature much more dry time than not with overall light QPF
amounts. Deep-layer flow turns more south-southwesterly into Friday
and will attempt to draw moisture (including some remnant moisture
from Beryl) towards the region. Given this, have chance POPs
returning to the forecast beginning Friday afternoon. Temperatures
will be near to slightly above average for the extended. Humidity
will be noticeable on Tuesday and perhaps Friday, though dew points
shouldn`t be too bad for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Showers are primarily along and east of I-77 currently and
should continue to make eastward progress through the evening
and early tonight. Brief MVFR ceilings are possible with these
showers. It`s possible that additional isolated showers develop
behind this, so kept VCSH and eastern TAF sites for a bit
longer. A line of thunderstorms has developed to our west in
Northeast Indiana and southern Michigan, but these should
dissipate as they approach the I-75 corridor.

Later tonight, some clouds are expected to stick around, though
there is some uncertainty with with coverage and height of
clouds. Model guidance has some indication of some MVFR clouds
so added a few hours of MVFR ceilings to TAF sites with greatest
chance (CAK and YNG), though there is at least a low chance for
all TAF sites at some point tonight. A cumulus field develops
across much of the area during the day Saturday. Initial cumulus
clouds could be MVFR ceilings, especially out west where
initial cumulus field may be BKN. As boundary layer mixes out,
should gradually see cumulus field increase in cloud height and
diminish in coverage through the afternoon/evening hours.

Light south to southwest winds will gradually favor a more
southwest to west direction through tonight into Saturday,
increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts around 20 knots by early
Saturday afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Variable winds on the lake due to a lake breeze this afternoon will
shift southerly this evening and then west-southwest late tonight
into Saturday behind a cold front. Speeds will increase to around 15
knots late tonight into Saturday. Waves will build to 2 to 4 feet
nearshore and 3 to 5 feet over the open waters of the central basin
on Saturday. Waves in the nearshore waters currently do not
necessitate a Small Craft Advisory for late tonight into Saturday
though the rougher conditions will certainly be noticeable. Tranquil
marine conditions are expected to return Saturday night and persist
through much of next week. There is a low risk for a thunderstorm
over the lake ahead of a cold front this evening. Otherwise, a few
thunderstorms may be possible over the lake Tuesday into Tuesday
night with the next cold front.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn/Saunders
SHORT TERM...Sullivan
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...Sullivan