Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
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847 FXUS62 KCHS 050003 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 803 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A hot and humid air mass will build over the region late week into the weekend. A weak cold front could approach the region later this weekend and stall over the area through the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Dry conditions prevail across the Low Country and north coastal Georgia as we approach sunset with clearing skies north of the Altamaha River region. Temps have dropped back into the 80s for most with the lowering sun angle and sea breeze front pushing into the midlands/CSRA, and quiet weather remains on tap for this evenings Independence Day festivities. Tonight: Near term guidance indicates that a broad 595 DM ridge will remain centered over the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico. At the sfc, a weak ridge is forecast to linger across the forecast area through the night. Sky should remain mostly clear to partly cloudy overnight. Due to a llvl inversion, it is possible that firework smoke may linger in the BL for some time late this evening. Low temperatures are forecast to range in the mid to upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... A mid-level ridge across the Southeast U.S. will remain in place through the period. The pattern features little distinct surface features; however, generally speaking there is high pressure offshore and trough of low pressure inland. Friday will still feel the influence of the ridge aloft, with a mid-level temperature inversion keeping convection limited especially along the coast. Therefore, the forecast for Friday reflects chance POPs (20-35%) far inland where some deeper moisture begins to creep in. The weekend should be a bit more convectively active. A weak front will approach the region on Saturday but will stay west of the local area. However, as mid-level moisture advection ramps up, we anticipate coverage to follow suite. There could be convection initiation along the sea breeze, but it appears development will trigger via llvl convergence near the inland surface trough/stationary front and then move into the local area from the west. A similar set-up is expected Sunday with the surface front providing focus for convection. High temps will reach the mid to upper 90s Friday away from the coast. Saturday temps will peak in the low to mid 90s, but it will feel even hotter with heat indices approaching the local Heat Advisory criteria of 108 degrees in spots. Some locations could require an Excessive Heat Advisory Saturday. Sunday will be a few degrees cooler, in the upper 80s to low 90s. Low temperatures will remain mild, in the mid to upper 70s, both Friday and Saturday night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Ridging aloft will prevail through the middle of next week with a broad trough to the northwest and a weakening upper low nearing the Southeast US coast. A stationary front looks to remain in the vicinity of the forecast area, setting up across the Midlands. In addition to the sea breeze, the front will provide the focus for convection With plenty of deep moisture in place. At least scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible each day, with coverage peaking in the afternoon and evenings. Temperatures are forecast to stay slightly above normal, in the low to mid 90s through next week, with lows in the 70s. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Ridging off the coast continues to dominate tonight and tomorrow, with mainly dry conditions and an overall weak gradient with VFR conditions prevailing. As the case in recent years, following this evening`s pyrotechnic displays, smoke or haze may result in brief periods of visibility restrictions at the terminals after dark. Forecast soundings indicate that a BL inversion may form as early as 2-3Z with light and variable winds. Future TAF issuances may include some degree of visibility restrictions associated with firework smoke. Otherwise, mainly only scattered passing cirrus overnight. Though radiational cooling will be efficient, any light/shallow fog is expected to remain inland mainly across SE GA, not impacting the TAF terminals. Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions are possible in showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evenings, this weekend through the middle of next week. && .MARINE... Tonight: A weak ridge of high pressure will linger across the coastal waters. Winds will turn from the east, speeds decreasing to around 5 kts late tonight. Seas should generally range between 2-3 ft. Friday through Tuesday: Southerly flow will persist through early next week. Marine conditions will stay solidly below small craft advisory criteria with speeds 15 knots or less and seas averaging 2- 3 feet. Rip Currents: A swell of 2 feet every 10 seconds and proximity to the new moon will maintain an enhanced risk of rip currents on Friday. A Moderate risk is forecast at all area beaches. An enhanced risk of rip currents could continue through the weekend. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...CEB/NED SHORT TERM...BRM LONG TERM...BRM AVIATION...BRM/CEB MARINE...BRM/NED