


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
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408 FXUS62 KCHS 062359 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 759 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Tropical Depression Chantal will weaken as it tracks north across eastern North Carolina tonight. Weak high pressure will then rebuild across the area and prevail through the upcoming week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Early this evening: Clusters of showers and thunderstorms continue to impact portions of southeast SC, primarily across Colleton County and the Charleston Tri-County region. This activity is mostly showers, but is within a pocket of 1,000-1,500 J/kg of MLCAPE so we are seeing some thunderstorm activity at times. The main impact from this activity are short-lived bursts of moderate to heavy rainfall. Most places that have been directly impacted have picked up 0.25-0.50" of rain, but there are some isolated amounts in western Charleston County that have likely seen upwards of an inch or more. Overall, this activity will persist for a couple more hours as outflow boundaries interact but should start to wind down with the loss of heating by mid to late evening. The rest of the overnight should be dry and quiet. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The region will be observing a slowly strengthening ridge axis over the southeastern CONUS, with the remnants of TD Chantal continuing to move well north of the region into Tuesday. This will usher in a fairly standard summer pattern to start off the work week, with daily highs in the lower to mid 90s and 20-30 percent chances for scattered showers in the afternoon, mostly along a sea-breeze. Monday and Tuesday will be the warmest as the aforementioned ridge strengthens, with the NBM bringing dewpoints in a touch lower than they have been. This has resulted in heat index values remaining below heat advisory criteria, though it will still be warm and moist. Wednesday will likely see an increase in mid-level moisture as the ridge weakens aloft, which should increase cloud coverage ahead of more widespread showers and thunderstorms along the sea- breeze. While shear remains weak and there is a lack of strong forcing, chances for severe weather remain low through Wednesday, though given 1000-2000 J/kg of CAPE the chances are non-zero. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Weak flow with upper level ridging aloft continues into the weekend, resulting in normal summertime conditions. Max temperatures in the 90s, overnight lows in the 70s, with diurnally driven scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The 00z TAF period begins with showers and thunderstorms either impacting or near KCHS and KJZI while KSAV looks all clear. KCHS is likely done with showers and storms, but KJZI will have to deal with it for another hour or two before this activity winds down. We have initialized KJZI with VCTS and a TEMPO group for IFR conditions through 01z. Overnight, VFR conditions should prevail. There could be afternoon thunderstorms on Monday, but coverage should be isolated and confidence in direct impacts at the terminals is low. Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief ceiling/vsby restrictions possible Monday through Thursday due to scattered showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Tonight, the marine zones will remain between departing TD Chantal over eastern NC and broad high pressure over the Bahamas. This pattern will support southwest winds between 10 to 15 kts tonight. Seas should remain between 3-5 ft this evening, then 3-4 ft by late tonight. Monday through Friday: No marine concerns/headlines expected throughout the week. Winds start out of the southwest each morning, becoming southerly and breezy throughout the day sustained mid to upper teens with gusts into the upper teens to lower 20s. Wave heights of 2 to 4 feet expected. Rip Currents: A Moderate Risk for rip currents exists for all area beaches today due to residual swell. Lingering swell will result in a Moderate Risk of rip currents for the Charleston County beaches on Monday. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...BSH SHORT TERM...APT LONG TERM...APT AVIATION...APT/BSH MARINE...APT/NED