388
FXUS61 KCAR 121401
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1001 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough will move into northern Maine this morning
and will slowly move east. A series of trofs will then move
across the region through Friday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Update...
Upper level/surface trofs will cross the region today. Lapse
rates will steepen this afternoon with cooling temperatures
aloft with the upper trof. Diurnal heating and steepening lapse
rates will increase afternoon instability across the forecast
area, supporting scattered showers/thunderstorms across much of
the region with the possible exception of the Downeast coast.
High temperatures today will range from around 70 to the lower
70s north, to the lower to mid 70s Downeast. Have updated to
adjust for current conditions along with expected afternoon
temperatures, clouds and shower/thunderstorm chances.

Previous Discussion...
By tonight, the axis of the trof will exit the area, bringing
in weak high pressure. This will help decrease thunderstorms
activity and push out the rest of the rain showers. High res
models show some possible showers lasting until midnight in the
north, but quickly dissipating after. Skies will begin to clear
bringing temps in the 50s.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
We will be under light north/northwest flow Tuesday through
Thursday. Wednesday into Thursday, there may be a weak semblance
of an upper level low centered just to our east in the Canadian
Maritimes, but the key word here is "weak". There will be just
enough instability each day for some afternoon convection,
generally isolated to scattered in nature. Instability looks
slightly better Wednesday/Thursday than on Tuesday. Temperatures
will be a little warmer than average. Dewpoints will be in the
mid 50s to low 60s, which is close to average. Winds will be
light.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Not much change in the pattern into Friday, but then weak
ridging aloft moves in around Friday night, with the ridge
likely moving east toward late Saturday and Sunday as the next
upper trough approaches. This should mean a return to southerly
flow, muggier conditions, and better precipitation chances
toward late Sunday or Monday. Temperatures should remain a bit
above average through the extended period.
&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Variable conditions with any showers/thunderstorms
this afternoon into the evening, then with any patchy fog
overnight. Otherwise, VFR through tonight. West/northwest winds
around 10 knots today, then 5 to 10 knots tonight.

SHORT TERM: Generally VFR through Friday. Chance of afternoon
showers/storms most days could bring briefly lower conditions,
but by far the most common condition will be VFR. There is also
a chance of patchy shallow fog any morning, but again, VFR will
be easily the most common condition. Winds less than 10 kts
except up to around 10 kts from the NW Tuesday afternoon.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels today
through tonight.

SHORT TERM: Conditions remaining below small craft levels with
little or no marine fog.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Norcross/LaFlash
Short Term...Foisy
Long Term...Foisy
Aviation...Norcross/Foisy
Marine...Norcross/Foisy