![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
388 FXUS61 KCAR 121401 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1001 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level trough will move into northern Maine this morning and will slowly move east. A series of trofs will then move across the region through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Update... Upper level/surface trofs will cross the region today. Lapse rates will steepen this afternoon with cooling temperatures aloft with the upper trof. Diurnal heating and steepening lapse rates will increase afternoon instability across the forecast area, supporting scattered showers/thunderstorms across much of the region with the possible exception of the Downeast coast. High temperatures today will range from around 70 to the lower 70s north, to the lower to mid 70s Downeast. Have updated to adjust for current conditions along with expected afternoon temperatures, clouds and shower/thunderstorm chances. Previous Discussion... By tonight, the axis of the trof will exit the area, bringing in weak high pressure. This will help decrease thunderstorms activity and push out the rest of the rain showers. High res models show some possible showers lasting until midnight in the north, but quickly dissipating after. Skies will begin to clear bringing temps in the 50s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... We will be under light north/northwest flow Tuesday through Thursday. Wednesday into Thursday, there may be a weak semblance of an upper level low centered just to our east in the Canadian Maritimes, but the key word here is "weak". There will be just enough instability each day for some afternoon convection, generally isolated to scattered in nature. Instability looks slightly better Wednesday/Thursday than on Tuesday. Temperatures will be a little warmer than average. Dewpoints will be in the mid 50s to low 60s, which is close to average. Winds will be light. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Not much change in the pattern into Friday, but then weak ridging aloft moves in around Friday night, with the ridge likely moving east toward late Saturday and Sunday as the next upper trough approaches. This should mean a return to southerly flow, muggier conditions, and better precipitation chances toward late Sunday or Monday. Temperatures should remain a bit above average through the extended period. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: Variable conditions with any showers/thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening, then with any patchy fog overnight. Otherwise, VFR through tonight. West/northwest winds around 10 knots today, then 5 to 10 knots tonight. SHORT TERM: Generally VFR through Friday. Chance of afternoon showers/storms most days could bring briefly lower conditions, but by far the most common condition will be VFR. There is also a chance of patchy shallow fog any morning, but again, VFR will be easily the most common condition. Winds less than 10 kts except up to around 10 kts from the NW Tuesday afternoon. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels today through tonight. SHORT TERM: Conditions remaining below small craft levels with little or no marine fog. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Norcross/LaFlash Short Term...Foisy Long Term...Foisy Aviation...Norcross/Foisy Marine...Norcross/Foisy