124
FXUS61 KCAR 070149
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
949 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure will drag a cold front across the area
tonight. High pressure builds Sunday into Monday. A weak surface
boundary approaches from the north Tuesday with a cold front
crossing the area Wednesday night. High pressure builds towards
the area on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
945 PM Update:
Remaining showers are moving out of eastern Maine this evening.
However, another MCV is noted across southern Quebec heading
towards the area. While conditions are stable and instability is
limited, enough moisture remains for additional shower activity
developing later tonight along the remnants of the MCV. Another,
weaker MCV is growing upscale across northern VT into northern
NH and is expected to dissipate prior to reaching southern
portions of the area. Fog and mist will continue to overspread
the area tonight as muggy conditions continue. Adjustments to
PoPs were made to account for potential lingering showers from
the decaying MCV heading into the North Woods later tonight,
otherwise no significant changes were needed.

Previous Discussion:
The main story tonight remains low clouds, drizzle and fog under
the inversion for most of the forecast area. The fog will be
thickest near the coast and a Dense Fog Advisory will have to be
a consideration as we move later into the night.

For Sunday, a slightly drier west wind and drier mid/upper
levels will allow fog and stratus to burn off fairly quickly in
the morning. Most of the area will see some sunshine. Residual
850mb moisture remains for cumulus. This moisture and
instability will allow development of scattered afternoon
showers and isolated thunderstorms. The very dry air aloft will
likely limit coverage and duration of any activity. A weak upper
trough arriving later in the afternoon will help provide
cooling aloft.

The warm and humid air mass remains in place for Sunday. The
sunshine will propel highs well into the 80s with continued
unpleasant humidity levels. Dew points will remain in the mid to
upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weak ridging remains over the area Sunday night into the day on
Monday, with the forecast area situated in the right entrance
region of the upper level jet streak. Though this jet streak
will quickly propagate eastward, lessening the influence, enough
instability may exist along with diurnal heating on Monday to
develop a few isolated showers Monday afternoon. Otherwise, a
drier pattern in terms of precipitation to start the week. That
said, warm muggy air will remain in place, with forecast highs
on Monday reaching into the mid 80s while dewpoints remain in
the mid to upper 60s.

Monday night into Tuesday, another jet streak of around 120 kts
aloft will approach from the west, with the forecast area
entering the right exit region of this streak. Some 500 mb
vorticity will approach from the west during this time as well.
With southwest return flow wrapping around the exiting ridge of
high pressure, the next wave of rain showers begin to enter the
forecast area from the south and west, aided by orographic lift
into the Central Highlands late in the day on Tuesday. Warm and
muggy conditions will continue, with highs lifting into the
upper 80s to near 90 during the day on Tuesday and dewpoints
remaining in the mid 60s across the north and approaching 70
Downeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The next low pressure system is likely to cross through the area
Wednesday into Wednesday night, with full support from the upper
levels all the way down through the surface. Showers should move
in from the southwest as the low crosses the area, passing into
New Brunswick by late Wednesday night. There is some uncertainty
with just how much moisture will be available at this point,
with the GFS pointing towards the leading edge of Beryl moisture
moving in at this point, while the ECMWF continues to suggest
that the pattern will not be quite so amplified, and that the
moisture will be confined to the southern CONUS through the
middle of the week.

There seems to be good agreement that the moisture from Beryl
will reach the forecast area at some point through the end of
the week, and this will support a generally unsettled pattern
with more showers and storms through the second half of the
week. Temperatures may remain around or just above average for
this time of the year, with dewpoints remaining steady in the
60s to lower 70s due to the continued moisture advection.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR to LIFR vis and cigs persist through the night
for all sites. BHB will be near VLIFR most of the night. Light S
winds are expected at Downeast sites, with near calm winds at
northern sites.

For Sunday, IFR/VLIFR fog and stratus will break up by mid-
morning for all sites and VFR follows by early afternoon for all
terminals. An isolated thunderstorm is possible north of HUL and
GNR. Light W/SW winds.


SHORT TERM:

Sun night...IFR in low clouds/patchy fog. Winds light and
variable.

Mon...Improving towards VFR. Winds SW around 5 kts.

Mon night...Generally VFR, with brief IFR/LIFR possible in
patchy fog. Light SW winds.

Tues...VFR cigs, with showers moving in late from the SW. SW
winds 5 to 10 kts.

Tues night - Wed...MVFR with scattered rain showers. Light W
winds.

Wed night - Thurs...MVFR with lingering showers. Winds light
and variable.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will slowly diminish tonight into
Sunday. Although some gusts have reached 25 kt this evening at
the higher sited Mount Desert Rock, a Small Craft Advisory is
not anticipated as lower sited buoys remain well below 25 kt.
Fog remains the greatest problem with little improvement
expected through tomorrow...except along the immediate coast by
later Sunday morning.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas are expected to remain below small
craft advisory levels through the middle of the week.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...MCW/MStrauser
Short Term...AStrauser
Long Term...AStrauser
Aviation...MCW/MStrauser/AStrauser
Marine...MCW/MStrauser/AStrauser