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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
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073 FXUS61 KCAR 162003 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 403 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level low will drift east of Nova Scotia tomorrow. A series of surface troughs will pass just west of the area through Sunday. Ernesto will pass well east of the area through Monday as a cold front crosses the area Monday night into Tuesday. High pressure builds in towards Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Tonight the upper low at 500mb will drift SE of Nova Scotia with surface high pressure drifting over the Gulf of Maine near Browns Bank. The 500mb ridge will crest over Maine by daybreak bringing an end to any precipitation with the loss of daytime heating this evening. HRRR/RAP Vertically Integrated Smoke models continue to show large concentrations of smoke on the order of 70-100mg/m2 with the exception of less smoke in Washington county given the proximity to the upper low. This suggest haze will continue well into tomorrow due to the airmass stuck overhead with this smoke. One good news is near surface smoke is looking less likely given the increasing southerly winds into tomorrow expecting the near surface smoke to push back west into Quebec to near the Maine/Quebec border in the North Woods. Overall, what this means...expect hazy skies tonight to cut back on stargazing in addition making skies still very milky into Saturday. Temperatures tonight fall back into the upper 50s to around 60F for most locations with the exception of far Eastern Washington county with a wind off the Bay of Fundy expect low to mid 50s. Tomorrow, the surface high pressure tracks SE of Nova Scotia with increasing return flow on the backside. Increasing mid to high level clouds tomorrow with the elevated smoke conditions. Smoke will continue to inhibit incoming solar radiation and combined with increasing winds off the cooler Gulf of Maine Waters expecting highs cooler than guidance in the Southern 1/2 of the CWA. Looking at highs around mid 70s with upper 60s along the shoreline. Across the north expecting upper 70s to low 80s. South winds 5-10mph with gusts up to 20mph. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A longwave trough will approach from the west this weekend, while a narrow ridge of high pressure continues to sit over the forecast area, and Ernesto continues to slowly push northwards, progged to pass well east of the region. With this synoptic setup, the narrow ridge of high pressure will have little place to go, and it is this that will hold back the approaching surface cold front. As such, guidance continues to pull back on the timing of the FROPA, and this forecast leans on the latter of all solutions, given the blocking pattern. Therefore high pressure remains in the area Saturday night into the day on Sunday, though a few showers may develop along the western border into the North Woods. For Monday, a cold front will finally cross the area, bringing the next round of rain across the entire CWA. With the parent longwave trough having tropical connections down into the Gulf of Mexico, plenty of moisture advection along the trough will support efficient rain processes for another widespread wetting rain. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The cold front will continue to push through the forecast area late Monday night into Tuesday, and should exit into the Canadian Maritimes by Tuesday afternoon. Behind the front, a dry continental airmass will return to the area, reducing the chance for showers and leaving behind a less humid air mass. High pressure will settle across northern New England through the end of the week, with more seasonable temperatures lifting into the mid 70s each day and falling to the lower 50s each night. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR with HZ. IFR/LIFR possible with BR/FG developing in spots but uncertainty is keeping the exact thoughts out of the TAFs for now. Expecting VFR or SCT MVFR/IFR in the AM becoming VFR. Winds tonight light and variable becoming S 5-10kt with gusts up to 15-20kt possible. SHORT TERM: Sat night - Sun...VFR across all terminals, with brief IFR or lower possible in any patchy fog. Light S winds around 5 kts. Sun night - Mon night...VFR early, with cigs gradually falling towards MVFR/IFR in approaching rain showers and patchy fog. Thunderstorms possible Monday into Monday night. S winds 5 to 10 kts shifting NW late Monday night, remaining 5 to 10 kts. Tues...MVFR/IFR conditions gradually improving to VFR by Tues afternoon. NW winds 5 to 10 kts with gusts 15 to 20 kts possible. Wed...VFR conditions across all terminals. NW winds 5 to 10 kts. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below SCA conditions through tomorrow. S-SW winds 5-10kt tonight with seas 1-2ft. Tomorrow winds will be S 5-15kt with potential gusts up to 20kt. Long period swells (14-15sec) from Ernesto arrive tomorrow with seas increasing 3-5ft. Patchy fog is expected tonight which may reduce vsby at times. SHORT TERM: Seas will build above Small Craft Advisory levels by Saturday night due to long period swells from Hurricane Ernesto, which will pass well east of the waters. Patchy fog will also reduce visibility over the waters at times Saturday into Monday. Seas will subside below SCA criteria by late Tuesday as Ernesto moves away. Winds will remain below Small Craft levels through midweek. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Sinko Short Term...AStrauser Long Term...AStrauser Aviation...Sinko/AStrauser Marine...Sinko/AStrauser