802
FXUS61 KCAR 021503
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1103 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will briefly cross the area today. Another
disturbance and cold front will cross the region Thursday. An
upper level low will cross the region Friday. High pressure
returns Saturday. A cold front will begin to approach later
Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
11 AM Update: A cu field has begun to develop across most of the
forecast area where skies have been clear through the morning.
Even though these fair-weather cu are developing, temperatures
are still running slightly higher than previously forecast, so
slight adjustment made to the high temperature across the north
to account for this trend. With slightly higher mixing heights,
winds have increased as well which has been adjusted with this
update. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track.

Previous Discussion...
During the day today, brief period of ridging occurs. Low
pressure system from Tuesday moves east in the Atlantic, keeping
associated rain showers to the waters. Confidence remains low
on any convection firing off, so kept thunderstorms chances out
of the forecast. CAPE, CIN, and shear is favorable, but PWATS
and lapse rates are not impressive. No real forcing to lift
parcels. Daytime highs in the mid-80s. Skies mostly cloudy in
the south, and partially cloudy in the northwest.

Tonight, stacked low pressure from the northwest moves into the
region from Quebec. Skies clear in the north, and progressively
begin to clear in central Maine overnight. Overnight lows in
the mid-60s. Relatively light winds, and high relative humidity
results in a potential for some coastal fog to develop.

Next chance for severe weather is Thursday, as low pressure
system moves into Maine. Positively tilted trough from Canada
quickly deepens, going over Maine and becoming neutrally tilted
during the day. Strong upper-level jet moves through the region,
alongside a 40-50kt 500mb jet, as this trough deepens. CAPE
values do shoot up to around 2,000-3,000J/kg in most places in
northern Maine. CIN stays relatively low, mid-and-low-level
lapse rates, alongside mid-level shear, are favorable for lift,
which coincides with the cold front passage through the region
during the day tomorrow. With skies relatively clear in the
morning, could be some surface heating that could help lift
parcels. During the morning into afternoon, inverted V
signature with elevated DCAPE values do show a potential for
some gusty winds to develop. Relatively straight hodographs
favor lines of storms that could move through the area.
Alongside favorable lapse rates, depth of the growth zone, and
MUCAPE are favorable for some hail development. Could be looking
at a potential for some severe thunderstorms, with the primary
threat being wind gusts, and a slight chance for small hail.
Daytime highs in the high-70s to low-80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front will cross the region Thursday night. Aloft, an
upper low will begin to approach northern areas late. Could
still have the chance of an evening thunderstorm. Otherwise,
expect decreasing shower chances Thursday night. The upper low
crosses the region Friday. Expect a chance of showers and
thunderstorms north, slight chance/chance Downeast, Friday.
Steep lapse rates with the cold pool aloft could help support
the risk of hail with any stronger thunderstorms. The upper low
begins to exit Friday night. Could still have the slight chance
of a shower/thunderstorm early Friday night. Otherwise, expect
showers will end overnight with partly cloudy/mostly clear
skies. Generally expect mostly/partly sunny skies Saturday.
However, if the cold pool aloft is slow to exit could also still
have enough instability to support the slight chance of an
afternoon shower across northern areas. Expect near normal, to
slightly below normal, level temperatures Friday. Expect
slightly above normal level temperatures Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A warm front could cross the region Saturday night with a
slight chance of showers mostly north. Otherwise, expect partly
cloudy skies. A cold front should begin to approach northern
areas later Sunday, then begin to cross the forecast area Sunday
night. Expect a chance of showers/thunderstorms in advance of
the front. The cold front should slowly cross the region Monday
into Monday night with a chance of showers/thunderstorms. The
front could then stall near the Downeast coast Tuesday while low
pressure moves along the front. Could still have a chance of
showers, slight chance of a thunderstorm, Tuesday dependent on
the proximity of the stalled front. Expect above normal level
temperatures Sunday/Monday. Near normal, to slightly above
normal, level temperatures are expected Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
Northern terminals: VFR across all terminals today and tonight,
with W winds 5 to 10 kts through the afternoon. Winds become
light and variable overnight.

BGR and coastal terminals: VFR through the day today. W winds 5
to 10 kts, with a sea breeze along the coast shifting winds
more SW this afternoon for those terminals. FG likely returns
tonight, but is yet to be seen how far inland this reduction in
visibility will reach. BHB likely to see some IFR/LIFR, while
BGR will either maintain VFR or fall to IFR should the fog bank
make it in.

SHORT TERM:

Thursday night...Occasional IFR early. Otherwise, VFR/MVFR. A
chance of showers. Chance of a thunderstorm early.
West/southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west/northwest.

Friday...Variable conditions with any showers or
thunderstorms, Otherwise, VFR/MVFR. West/northwest winds around
10 knots.

Friday night...Occasional MVFR early with a chance of showers.
Otherwise, VFR. West/northwest winds 5 to 10 knots.

Saturday...VFR. Slight chance of a shower north. West/southwest
winds around 10 knots.

Saturday night...VFR/MVFR. Slight chance of a shower, mostly
north. South/southwest winds 5 to 10 knots.

Sunday...Variable conditions with any showers/thunderstorms.
Otherwise, VFR/MVFR. South/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas below Small Craft Advisory criteria
today through Thursday. Seas stay at or below 4 ft over the
outer waters, and at or below 3ft for the inner waters. Winds
from the SW today, becoming S by Thursday. Fog expected late
tonight. Rain may return late Thursday afternoon with
thunderstorms possible.


SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels
Thursday night through Saturday. Slight chance of a
shower/thunderstorm Thursday night, then again Friday
afternoon.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...AStrauser/Brennan
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...AStrauser/Brennan/Norcross
Marine...AStrauser/Brennan/Norcross