965
FXUS61 KCAR 170421
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1221 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will drift east of Nova Scotia tomorrow. A
series of surface troughs will pass just west of the area
through Sunday. Ernesto will pass well east of the area through
Monday as a cold front crosses the area Monday night into
Tuesday. High pressure builds in towards Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
12:21 AM Update...Forecast remains on track at this time.
Visibility reductions have been noted in parts of Downeast, with
Machias reporting visibility of one-half mile. Will continue to
monitor fog and low stratus development as the overnight period
progresses.

Previous Discussion...
Tonight the upper low at 500mb will drift SE of Nova Scotia
with surface high pressure drifting over the Gulf of Maine near
Browns Bank. The 500mb ridge will crest over Maine by daybreak
bringing an end to any precipitation with the loss of daytime
heating this evening. HRRR/RAP Vertically Integrated Smoke
models continue to show large concentrations of smoke on the
order of 70-100mg/m2 with the exception of less smoke in
Washington county given the proximity to the upper low. This
suggest haze will continue well into tomorrow due to the airmass
stuck overhead with this smoke. One good news is near surface
smoke is looking less likely given the increasing southerly
winds into tomorrow expecting the near surface smoke to push
back west into Quebec to near the Maine/Quebec border in the
North Woods. Overall, what this means...expect hazy skies
tonight to cut back on stargazing in addition making skies still
very milky into Saturday. Temperatures tonight fall back into
the upper 50s to around 60F for most locations with the
exception of far Eastern Washington county with a wind off the
Bay of Fundy expect low to mid 50s. Tomorrow, the surface high
pressure tracks SE of Nova Scotia with increasing return flow on
the backside. Increasing mid to high level clouds tomorrow with
the elevated smoke conditions. Smoke will continue to inhibit
incoming solar radiation and combined with increasing winds off
the cooler Gulf of Maine Waters expecting highs cooler than
guidance in the Southern 1/2 of the CWA. Looking at highs around
mid 70s with upper 60s along the shoreline. Across the north
expecting upper 70s to low 80s. South winds 5-10mph with gusts
up to 20mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A longwave trough will approach from the west this weekend,
while a narrow ridge of high pressure continues to sit over the
forecast area, and Ernesto continues to slowly push northwards,
progged to pass well east of the region. With this synoptic
setup, the narrow ridge of high pressure will have little place
to go, and it is this that will hold back the approaching
surface cold front. As such, guidance continues to pull back on
the timing of the FROPA, and this forecast leans on the latter
of all solutions, given the blocking pattern. Therefore high
pressure remains in the area Saturday night into the day on
Sunday, though a few showers may develop along the western
border into the North Woods.

For Monday, a cold front will finally cross the area, bringing
the next round of rain across the entire CWA. With the parent
longwave trough having tropical connections down into the Gulf
of Mexico, plenty of moisture advection along the trough will
support efficient rain processes for another widespread wetting
rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The cold front will continue to push through the forecast area
late Monday night into Tuesday, and should exit into the
Canadian Maritimes by Tuesday afternoon. Behind the front, a dry
continental airmass will return to the area, reducing the chance
for showers and leaving behind a less humid air mass. High
pressure will settle across northern New England through the end
of the week, with more seasonable temperatures lifting into the
mid 70s each day and falling to the lower 50s each night.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR for the Aroostook terminals overnight through
Saturday.

VFR through about 05-06z for KBGR/KBHB then conditions
deteriorating to IFR/LIFR in lowering ceilings and fog.
Conditions will improve to VFR by mid morning Saturday.

Light and variable wind tonight becoming S 5 to 10kt
with gusts up to 15 to 20kt.

SHORT TERM:
Sat night - Sun...VFR across all terminals, with brief IFR or
lower possible in any patchy fog. Light S winds around 5 kts.

Sun night - Mon night...VFR early, with cigs gradually falling
towards MVFR/IFR in approaching rain showers and patchy fog.
Thunderstorms possible Monday into Monday night. S winds 5 to
10 kts shifting NW late Monday night, remaining 5 to 10 kts.

Tues...MVFR/IFR conditions gradually improving to VFR by Tues
afternoon. NW winds 5 to 10 kts with gusts 15 to 20 kts
possible.

Wed...VFR conditions across all terminals. NW winds 5 to 10 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below SCA conditions through
tomorrow. S-SW winds 5-10kt tonight with seas 1-2ft. Tomorrow
winds will be S 5-15kt with potential gusts up to 20kt. Long
period swells (14-15sec) from Ernesto arrive tomorrow with seas
increasing 3-5ft. Patchy fog is expected tonight which may
reduce vsby at times.

SHORT TERM: Seas will build above Small Craft Advisory levels
by Saturday night due to long period swells from Hurricane
Ernesto, which will pass well east of the waters. Patchy fog
will also reduce visibility over the waters at times Saturday
into Monday. Seas will subside below SCA criteria by late
Tuesday as Ernesto moves away. Winds will remain below Small
Craft levels through midweek.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Clark/Sinko
Short Term...AStrauser
Long Term...AStrauser
Aviation...Clark/Sinko/AStrauser
Marine...Clark/Sinko/AStrauser