367
FXUS61 KCAR 061712
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
112 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will begin to slowly cross the region later
Sunday. The cold front will become nearly stationary across
central areas on Monday, then cross the Gulf of Maine Tuesday
through Tuesday night, then dissipate mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
1 PM Update: Overcast skies across the north have lingered
longer than originally forecast, leading to a slower warmup
today across the north and a later start to any convective
initiation. Meanwhile, enough surface heating has taken place
Downeast and in the Bangor area for temperatures to soar into
the upper 80s already. Minor adjustments made to temperatures
and precip forecasts based on current observations and trends.

Previous Discussion:
A cold front across Quebec will slowly move east today while high
pressure remains across the western atlantic to the south of Nova
Scotia. The flow around the high will transport a warmer and more
humid air mass across the region in advance of the approaching
front. Afternoon highs will reach the low to mid 80s across
northern areas. Expect highs in the mid 80s to near 90 for the
central areas, the Upper Penobscot Valley, interior Downeast,
and the Bangor region. At the same time, dew points will rise
into the mid 60s to near 70 degrees across central areas,
including the Bangor region. This will result in apparent
temperatures in the low to mid 90s. It appears; however, that
apparent temperatures should stay just below heat advisory
criteria. Still, it will be quite muggy feeling and
uncomfortable this afternoon.

The cold front will approach the crown of Maine by early afternoon.
The atmosphere will become more unstable in advance of the front,
with showers and scattered thunderstorms developing. Latest
CAMs indicating an increasing chance for showers and
thunderstorms after noon time across northern and central areas
and then moving south toward the Bangor region and portions of
interior Downeast late afternoon into this evening. Gusty winds
appear to be the main threat with any storms today. Also, with
precipitable water values rising to around 2 inches, locally
heavy downpours are possible.

The front will cross far northern areas by early evening and
then push slowly south. The front will then reach a HUL to GNR
line by early Monday morning. Expect mainly cloudy skies tonight
with showers. Scattered thunderstorms are possible this
evening. Lows tonight will range from the mid to upper 50s
across northern areas and the mid to upper 60s for the Bangor
region, including Downeast areas.

The nearly stationary frontal boundary will bisect the forecast area
on Monday. Appears as if the boundary will be somewhere between
Bangor and Houlton. Expect the best chances for showers and
thunderstorms along the boundary on Monday. Across far northern
areas, not expecting any storms on Monday, as this area will be
on the cooler side of the boundary. But a few storms are
possible in the warmer, more unstable airmass to the south of
the boundary, including the Bangor region, where dew points will
still be in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Surface low likely to be in vicinity of the Bangor Region on Monday
evening with frontal boundary bisecting CWA. Areas to the north of
the boundary may experience isolated storms with moderate to locally
heavy rainfall as central and northern areas in the RFQ of H2 jet
streak with pw values remaining around 2.00 inches. As front drops
further south during the overnight hours expect locally heavy
rainfall will move out of the region, along with thunder. By
midnight, only isolated storms remain mainly to the south of a
Greenville to Topsfield line and with synoptic support on the wane
expect that storms will be few and far between late Monday night,
though forcing along boundary continues to keep likely showers in
through Tuesday morning.

Showers linger over the north in warm and humid airmass before
cooler and drier air move in from the north mid-late morning.
Frontal boundary looks to creep south during the day on Tuesday with
most of the showers and storms over interior Downeast and the Bangor
Region in the afternoon. Skies begin to clear across the north in
the afternoon with temps rebounding to normal values while southern
areas will be below normal in cloudy and rainy weather. Cannot rule
out moisture from Chantal getting entrained into Downeast but most
of the deterministic and ensemble guidance keeps the main moisture
out over the Gulf of Maine.

Front moves offshore Tuesday night with 1020mb sfc surface high
slowly building into CWA. H5 flow remains zonal with s/wvs possibly
zipping thru, mainly over srn areas, leading to low chance pops. QPF
amounts will be minor. Low temperatures will drop into the 50s acrs
the north with remainder of the area around 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
With zonal flow over the area and upr trof hanging back to our west
cannot rule out convection from the middle to end of the week.
Mainly chc pops are expected as little organized synoptic forcing
expected. Temperatures likely to be near normal each day with
dewpoints in the upper 50s to around 60 thru the extended.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
Northern terminals: VFR to continue over most terminals through
the day today, though worsening conditions possible after 18z
this afternoon in showers and thunderstorms. Cigs will continue
to fall late tonight, becoming MVFR to potentially IFR over
northern terminals through the day on Monday with more
persistent rain showers through the day. W winds 5 to 10 kts
with gusts to 20 kts become light and variable overnight,
shifting E on Monday around 5 kts.

Downeast terminals: VFR continues today and into the night
tonight, though coastal terminals could see IFR/LIFR in any fog
that develops. Mostly VFR continues on Monday as rain and
thunderstorms remain north of the area. Brief LLWS possible near
the coast Sunday night and Monday night between around 23z -
03z.

SHORT TERM:
Monday night...MVFR all terminals with showers and storms possibly
from KHUL south. IFR in fog over Downeast terminals. Light N
northern Aroostook terminals with light S Downeast terminals.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR north, MVFR Downeast. N 5kts.

Tuesday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR. Cannot rule out
brief MVFR in showers, possible storms Thursday afternoon.
Light ENE becoming light SE Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the outer waters
beginning this evening through early Monday morning for gusts
to around 25 kt and seas 4 to 6 ft.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas below small craft levels through the end of
the week. Visibilities likely to be reduce in fog late Monday night.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029-
     030.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Monday
     for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$


Near Term...AStrauser/TWD
Short Term...Buster
Long Term...Buster
Aviation...AStrauser/TWD/Buster
Marine...AStrauser/TWD/Buster