Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
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256 FXUS61 KCAR 080811 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 411 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds in from the west today. A weak surface trough approaches from the north Tuesday night. Low pressure then approaches from the west Wednesday through the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Current sfc analysis has boundary still lingering over Downeast zones early this morning. Areas of fog visible over the waters per latest nighttime microphysics satellite with coastal areas dropping in fog. To the north of the boundary is patchy radiational fog developing with lowest visibilities being found where significant rain has fallen the past 1-2 days. Other than a few high cirrus streaming through skies are mainly clear tonight with calm winds. H5 ridge peaks over the CWA this morning with very slowly dropping heights this afternoon. Given the boundary still lurking over central areas and lowering heights cannot rule out an isolated shower developing in the afternoon and evening hours. High temps will be warmer than Sunday with sunny skies this morning giving way to mid-high clouds over the north and mostly sunny skies in the south. Marine layer looks to make another run over Downeast late tonight with radiational fog occurring once again across the north under stagnant airmass. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Another very warm and humid day expected on Tuesday with continued west to southwest flow in place. Afternoon highs on Tuesday will once again climb into the mid to upper 80s away from the coast. An approaching mid/upper level disturbance and weak cold front approaching from Quebec province sets the stage for the possibility of a few afternoon thunderstorms. 0 to 6 km shear values around 40 to 45 kt could help support any storm that do develop. PWAT values increase to greater than 1.5", with potential for some heavy downpours with any storms. Will not include any enhanced wording at this time as confidence not quite there, but something next shift may have to consider. Any afternoon convection should quickly wind down by early Tuesday evening with the passage of a weak cold front later Tuesday night. Lows Tuesday night will be in the low to mid 60s. The front stalls just offshore later Tuesday night and early Wednesday with a break expected and just the chance of a shower. Afternoon highs on Wednesday will be just a tad cooler in the low to mid 80s, but it will remain on the muggy side. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Low pressure and remnant tropical moisture from Beryl then approaches later Wednesday night and Thursday. Still uncertainty in where the heaviest rainfall ultimately sets up. This system does have the potential to bring locally heavy rainfall to parts of the region Wednesday night through Thursday. Will have to watch for the potential of localized flooding with any heavier rainfall. Once this system finally exits late week we should see a break in the showers. It is expected to remain rather warm and humid through much of the long term. Afternoon highs are expected to be near normal on Thursday and then in the low to mid 80s Friday through next weekend. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: Expecting IFR/LIFR vsbys to develop overnight, with CAR likely to see VLIFR due to heavy rainfall Sunday. Cannot rule out LIFR at BHB with marine layer advancing north but little confidence at terminals elsewhere. VFR should be the rule after 11z this morning. SHORT TERM: Tue and Tue night...Localized IFR early in patchy fog, otherwise VFR. Possible MVFR in any afternoon thunderstorms. SW winds 15 kts becoming W wind 5 to 10 kts. Wed...VFR. Light winds. Wed night through Fri...MVFR with possible in showers and thunderstorms. Light winds becoming SW 10 to 15kts. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below small craft levels today and tonight. Visibilities will remain below one mile through tonight as warm humid air remains over the cold waters. SHORT TERM: Winds/seas will generally remain below SCA levels through id week. Visibility will be reduced to 1 to 3 NM in late night/early morning fog. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Buster Short Term...TWD Long Term...TWD Aviation...Buster/TWD Marine...Buster/TWD