Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
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327 FXUS61 KCAR 031012 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 612 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will slide southeast of the region today. A warm front will cross the region tonight through early Thursday. A weak cold front will stall along the Downeast coast Thursday night. The front then slowly lifts back north Friday into Saturday. Another weak cold front will begin to cross the region Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 6:10 AM Update...The sky remains clear across the area except some faint whisps of high clouds in the western horizon. 6Z model runs have backed off on the advance of mid and high level moisture so reworked forecast to go mostly clear this morning with some higher clouds moving in mainly later this afternoon. Also lowered early morning temps with the clear skies allowing more cooling. High pressure over the area will bring a mostly sunny morning. Some high clouds will begin to increase today ahead of a weak trough of low pressure approaching from the west. A few spotty cumulus will also form this afternoon. By this afternoon, the sky will be partly to mostly cloudy north and partly cloudy south with sun dimmed by high clouds. The gradient between high pressure sliding off to the east and the approaching trough will bring an increasing southerly breeze this afternoon. A "low level jet" (LLJ) will likely form over the St. Lawrence Valley late tonight funneling warmer and more humid air north toward the Laurentians. Some showers and isolated thunderstorms may form in the St. Laurence Valley and then stray east into northern parts of our region. However, these showers will likely weaken as they cross our western mountains and lose the support of the LLJ. A chance of showers, and slight chance of a thunderstorm in the far northwest, will be introduced tonight. Otherwise, tonight will be partly to mostly cloudy and a bit warmer than last night with a light southerly breeze continuing. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A warm front will move northeast of the region Thursday morning. A weak cold front will then begin to cross later Thursday. Will have a slight chance/chance of showers across northern and central portions of the forecast area early Thursday with the exiting warm front. Will then have a chance of showers, along with a slight chance of thunderstorms, in the same areas Thursday afternoon with the weak cold front. Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy/partly sunny skies across northern areas Thursday with partly sunny skies Downeast. The weak cold front will reach the Downeast coast and stall later Thursday night. Could still have a chance of showers, slight chance of a thunderstorm, across northern and central areas early Thursday night. Could also have a slight chance of early showers Downeast. Otherwise, expect partly cloudy skies north, partly/mostly cloudy Downeast, Thursday night. The front then begins to slowly lift back north in the form of a warm front Friday through Friday night. Expect partly sunny skies along with a chance of showers Friday. Will have a slight chance/chance of showers Friday night along with partly/mostly cloudy skies. Humidity levels will also begin to increase to the south of the warm front Friday with dewpoints reaching the mid to upper 60s across central and Downeast portions of the forecast area. Warm moist air over the cold waters of the Gulf of Maine will lead to increasing fog coverage Friday into Friday night. With onshore winds, the fog will move inland to varying extents during the night time and morning hours, tending to retreat back toward the coast during the afternoon. Temperatures will be at near normal, to slightly above normal, levels Thursday/Friday. The coolest temperatures will occur along the Downeast coast with onshore winds from the Gulf of Maine. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The warm front will lift to northern Maine Saturday. Expect a chance of showers, along with a slight chance of thunderstorms, across the region Saturday along with mostly cloudy skies. Morning fog across central and Downeast areas will retreat back toward the Downeast coast during the afternoon. Another weak cold front will begin to cross the region Saturday night keeping a chance of showers across the region, along with a slight chance of early thunderstorms. Fog will also begin to advance inland again. The cold front will cross the region Sunday with a chance of showers along with mostly cloudy/partly sunny skies. Showers will end in the wake of the cold front Sunday night. High pressure will cross the region Monday with generally partly cloudy skies, though could also still have the slight chance of an afternoon shower across northern areas. High pressure will begin to exit to the east Tuesday. Expect partly sunny skies Tuesday, with diurnal instability also supporting the chance of mostly afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Expect near normal level temperatures Saturday. Above normal level temperatures are then expected Sunday through Tuesday. The coolest temperatures Saturday through Tuesday will generally occur along the Downeast coast. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected across the area today and tonight with a light southerly breeze increasing today and continuing tonight. SHORT TERM: Thursday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms, mostly central and north. Variable conditions with any thunderstorms. South/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Thursday night...VFR/MVFR early. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms north early. Variable conditions with any thunderstorms. A slight chance of showers Downeast early. Generally VFR late with showers ending. However, variable conditions with any fog Downeast. South/southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming variable. Friday through Friday night...Generally VFR. Slight chance/chance of mostly afternoon and overnight showers. However, variable conditions Downeast with any fog early Friday then again Friday night. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots. Saturday...VFR/MVFR early, then MVFR/IFR. A chance of showers. Slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms. Variable conditions with any fog early. Southeast/south winds around 10 knots. Saturday night...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, with showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Variable conditions with fog. South/southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Sunday...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, in the morning. VFR/MVFR during the afternoon. A chance of showers. Variable conditions with morning fog. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Wind and seas will be below SCA today and tonight. Humid air over the cooler waters will result in some light mist and patchy fog through tonight. SHORT TERM: Winds/sea below small craft advisory levels Thursday through Friday night. A slight chance of showers early Thursday night, then again Friday afternoon and night. Shower chances then persist through the weekend. Expect patchy fog Thursday night into Friday. Areas of fog then expected Friday night through the weekend. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Bloomer Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norcross Aviation...Bloomer/Norcross Marine...Bloomer/Norcross