230
FXUS61 KCAR 112022
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
422 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure and remnant moisture from Beryl will cross the
region tonight into Friday. A disturbance will cross the region
Saturday. High pressure will cross the region Sunday. A cold
front will begin to approach later Monday into Tuesday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The remnants of Beryl will continue to move NE out of the
region tonight. For this evening, rain showers will continue
across the area with isolated thunderstorms expected. The main
instability will concentrate across the south, but will need to
break through the stable layer to produce these storms. By
midnight, isolated to scattered rain showers will remain. The
main concern tonight will be the areas of fog developing across
the region. Upper air model soundings show a low stratus deck
moving in with the showers. This combined with the calm winds,
high humidity, moist soil, and cooling temps will produce fog.
Locally dense fog is possible across Downeast.

By Friday, a large upper level ridge with an associated surface
high pressure will continue to sit over the Atlantic, wrapping
tropical moisture around from the south. High-res models
indicate isolated to scattered showers throughout the day,
mainly in the north along the cold pool. The funneling of
tropical moisture also means the increasing in temps and
dewpoints. Temps will be in the upper 70s in the north and low
80s in the south with RH near 80 percent.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure exits across the Maritimes Friday night, with a frontal
boundary stalling across Downeast areas. Generally expect partly
cloudy skies across the region Friday night, along with a chance of
mostly early showers. An upper level disturbance crosses the region
Saturday, while the front remains stalled Downeast. Expect a chance
of morning showers. Lapse rates will steepen during the afternoon
with the upper level disturbance. Steepening lapse rates, along with
lingering low level moisture and diurnal heating will lead to
increasing afternoon instability which will also support a chance of
thunderstorms. However, the extent of instability is still
uncertain. Showers/thunderstorms will diminish early Saturday
night with the loss of diurnal heating and the exiting upper
disturbance, with clouds then decreasing overnight. High
pressure will bring mostly sunny skies Sunday. Patchy/areas of
fog both Friday night/Saturday night. Above normal level
temperatures and humid conditions will persist Saturday/Sunday.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Skies will remain mostly clear Sunday night with high pressure. A
warm front will lift across the region Monday with a chance of
mostly afternoon showers/thunderstorms. A cold front is then
expected to cross the region Tuesday/Wednesday, though timing
differences still exist. Expect a chance of showers/thunderstorms
Tuesday and Wednesday with diurnal instability and the possible
proximity of the cold front. High pressure should build toward the
region Thursday, though could still have the chance of mostly
afternoon showers/thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain at above
normal levels Monday through Wednesday, with near normal level
temperatures Thursday.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR low clouds will continue through tonight.
HUL/BGR/BHB will reach IFR/LIFR before sunset in cig and rain
showers. Patchy to areas of fog expected for all terminals
tonight. Light and variable winds. For Friday, MVFR/IFR/LIFR
conditions will continue through the morning. By the afternoon,
cigs will start to lift to VFR/MVFR. WSW winds 5-10 kts.

SHORT TERM:

Friday night...Variable conditions with fog. Otherwise, VFR.
Slight chance of an early shower. West/southwest winds 5 to 10
knots.

Saturday...Variable conditions with fog early. Otherwise,
VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of
showers/thunderstorms in the afternoon. West/southwest winds 5
to 10 knots.

Saturday night...Generally VFR. Slight chance of an early
shower/thunderstorm. Variable conditions with any fog.
West/southwest winds 5 to 10 knots.

Sunday through Sunday night...VFR. West/southwest winds 5 to 10
knots.

Monday...VFR early, then VFR/MVFR with a chance of mostly afternoon
showers and thunderstorms. Southwest/south winds 5 to 10 knots.

Monday night through Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Southwest/south winds 5 to 10 knots.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the outer
waters from tonight to Friday due to gust winds and seas 4-7ft

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Friday
night through Sunday. A slight chance of showers Friday night.
A chance of showers Saturday into Saturday night. Patchy/areas
of fog Friday night into Sunday.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$


Near Term...LaFlash
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...LaFlash/Norcross
Marine...LaFlash/Norcross