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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
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682 FXUS61 KCAR 150747 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 347 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Several weak troughs of low pressure will cross the area today through Tuesday. A cold front approaches the area Tuesday night, then slowly crosses the region Wednesday and Wednesday night. An upper level disturbance passes on Thursday with high pressure building in through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The ridge of high pressure in place early this morning will continue to shift eastward through the day today, allowing for return flow to advect warm, moist air into the forecast area. Coupled with a weak shortwave trough crossing the area during the day today, scattered showers will develop through the region this afternoon, with some isolated thunderstorms possible. Forecast CAPE values of around 500 J/kg across the north and Interior Downeast regions combined with steep low level lapse rates will support moderate convective development, but weak shear less than 20 kts should limit any stronger storms from forming. Hot temperatures are in store for today once more, with temperatures lifting into the mid to upper 80s across most of the forecast area, and the Bangor area making a run for 90 today. Combined with dewpoints that remain elevated, heat indices (what it feels like) could lift into the low to mid 90s today. Even though the forecast is for heat indices to remain just below heat advisory levels, the weather will still be quite hot and humid. During this time, remember to avoid overexertion during peak heating hours and stay hydrated. And as always, never leave people or pets inside a hot vehicle. Warm temperatures will continue into the overnight hours, providing little in the way of relief. Lows may only fall into the mid to upper 60s, and dewpoints will remain around the same, leading to the returned chance for patchy fog to develop in areas where winds diminish, or areas which receive recent rainfall. Additionally, another small vorticity max that is currently positioned over the Great Lakes will wrap its way north through the New England region, and could lead to the development of nocturnal showers and storms up through Maine shortly before daybreak on Tuesday. There remains some uncertainty of where this vorticity will track, should the vort max hold together at all. That said, CAMs are in general consensus that CAPE will be on the rise, potentially making a run for 1500 J/kg. Lapse rates will be less steep given the time of night, but shear will be on the increase given the pattern. Thus, isolated thunderstorms remain a possibility late tonight. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The region is under SW flow aloft Tuesday-Wednesday night with shortwaves embedded in the flow bringing isolated to scattered showers to the region. The risk of showers will be mainly north of Downeast Maine Tuesday and Tuesday night, then spread to all of northern and eastern Maine for Wednesday and Wednesday night. There is also a slight chance for thunderstorms during the afternoon. Both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon should feature around 1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE, but shear should be higher on Wednesday (40-45KT) vice Tuesday (20-30KT). So the best threat for any organized strong to possibly severe convection should be on Wednesday. With precipitable waters on Tuesday around 1.25-1.75 inches and on Wednesday of 1.5-2 inches will allow for locally heavy downpours in any stronger convection. This could produce at a minimum the ponding of water on roadways and possibly minor flooding of known low lying and poor drainage areas on Tuesday with the possibility of isolated flash flooding on Wednesday. It will also be hot and humid both days, with highs generally in the 80s (with some isolated readings around 90 on Tuesday) coupled with dewpoints around 70 on Tuesday and from the mid 60s to lower 70s on Wednesday producing afternoon heat indices from the upper 80s to mid 90s on Tuesday and mid 80s to mid 90s on Wednesday. Heat indices will be highest across the Bangor Region, southern portions of the Central Highlands, and interior portions of Downeast Maine both days. There is still too much uncertainty to issue a heat advisory for these areas at this time, but the threat bears continued monitoring. The risk for heat indices around advisory levels Tuesday and Wednesday and the threat for strong to severe storms on Wednesday will be highlighted in the HWO. Patchy to areas of fog, possibly lowering visibilities to under a mile is also possible at night/early in the morning each day. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A northern stream trough approaches Thursday and Thursday night then crosses the area Friday. This could bring another round of scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms on Thursday, however any thunder should be mainly elevated in nature so should not produce any strong storms. OTher than possibly some lingering showers Thursday evening, the low levels should be sufficiently dry Thursday night and Friday to preclude any precipitation then. SW flow sets up again aloft over the region Friday night-Sunday. There is uncertainty in the timing of a frontal system for Saturday night/Sunday. Depending on the timing, there could be another round of convection ahead of this front, this is more likely with a daytime vice night time frontal passage. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions will continue through the day today across all terminals. Afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms could briefly bring cigs down towards MVFR. A returned threat for fog development tonight for any terminal which receives rainfall during these afternoon showers. Light and variable winds increasing to SW 5 to 10 kts through this afternoon, then becoming light and variable once more tonight. There is a slight chance for thunderstorms to approach BGR/GNR late tonight, but this threat is too slight to highlight in TAFs at this time. Cigs may lower towards IFR at BHB tonight, while all other terminals remain VFR trending towards MVFR as rain showers move in late. SHORT TERM: Tuesday-Wednesday night...MVFR or lower possible at night/early in the morning. Otherwise VFR, except for brief periods of MVFR or lower possible in any stronger showers/thunderstorms during the afternoon/early evening. LLWS possible Tuesday and Wednesday night at southern terminals. Thursday...Mainly VFR, except for brief periods of MVFR possible in any stronger convection. W-NW winds G15-20KT possible. Thursday night-Friday...VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below small craft advisory conditions today through tonight, though gusts may briefly approach 20 kts on the coastal waters this evening. Patchy fog could reduce visibilities below 1 mile at times through the near term. SHORT TERM: Areas of fog reducing visibilities to under 1nm is likely in the morning/at night Tuesday-Thursday morning. Winds/seas should be just under SCA levels on the coastal ocean waters Tuesday-Wednesday evening. All waters should see conditions well below SCA levels late Wednesday night-Friday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...AStrauser Short Term...Maloit Long Term...Maloit Aviation...AStrauser/Maloit Marine...AStrauser/Maloit