761
FXUS61 KCAR 091702
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
102 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure will slowly approach from the west
through the end of the week, followed by high pressure for the
weekend. Another front is expected to approach the area early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1 PM Update: A fair weather cu field has developed across the
north, while some mid to high level clouds stream into the
Interior Downeast region, delaying cu development into
Washington county. Warm temperatures continue into this
afternoon, and max temps were raised slightly with this update,
particularly in the north. Otherwise, the previous forecast
remains on track.

Prev discussion:  Cold front has shifted well offshore with sfc
ridge over the area. Clear skies and light winds has allowed river
valley fog to develop over the area. Ridge valley split is
definitely pronounced with Soucey Hill sitting at 60 and PQI at 53.
Mins by morning will range from the mid-40s over nwrn Aroostook to
around 60 near the Bangor Region and Downeast with marine layer
eventually working it/s way north.

Skies will gradually cloud up from the west later this afternoon as
moisture returns with high pressure shifting east and inverted trof
developing along the international border. Showers look to move into
portions of the Central Highlands after 18z but ridge axis likely to
hold on tight over remainder of the area.  Max temps look to climb
into the upr 70s/nr 80 over all areas with the exception of the
immediate coast and the higher terrain of Piscataquis County.

Upper level system slowly approaches from the west tonight though H5
ridge looks to hold tight thru 12z Thursday. As ridge begins to
flatten with s/wvs riding thru in the flow cannot rule out scattered
showers moving into wrn areas Thursday morning into the afternoon.
Caveat to how much coverage showers will bring is wave developing
along the frontal boundary over the waters impeding sfc moisture.
Therefore, expecting only light showers with total qpf thru the end
of Thursday being around 0.10 inches over the north and west.
Temperatures on Thursday will be just slightly cooler than
Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday night: The vertically stacked low pressure system will
swing the trof into the region. The shortwave energy moving into the
area should push from W to E. Light rain is expected to stay mainly
to the north with less in the south.

Friday: The axis of the upper level trof is expected to move across
the region throughout the day. Rain should continue throughout the
day which will keep the temps in the 70s across the region. Some
elevated instability could cause isolated thunderstorms to develop
in the afternoon with the rain showers.

Friday night: The ridge will start to move into the area which will
gradually push out the shortwave. Rain showers should clear out of
the are after midnight. Clouds should stick around through the night
but gradually clear by the morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The weekend looks to be fairly calm with partly cloudy skies and
near normal temps as the ridge moves through New England. Models
are in better agreement with the next cold front moving into the
area by early next week. The GFS and Canadian are in better
agreement with a faster moving front than the Euro. The NBM has
higher rain shower chances on Monday. Decided to stick with the
NBM as a good middle ground. Model lose consistency by Tuesday
with the GFS showing a weak high pressure system while Euro and
Canadian show another cold front. Temps should be near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions continue across all terminals this
afternoon into this evening under mostly clear skies. Some fog
development is possible tonight, which could limit conditions
towards IFR for BHB/BGR overnight, but terminals will otherwise
remain VFR through the night. Low confidence in fog development
at northern terminals, but HUL may see a brief decrease in vis
through early Thursday morning as well. Winds light and
variable.

Thursday may see conditions diminish to MVFR as showers approach
from the west late in the afternoon over most terminals. SE
winds 5 to 10 kts.

SHORT TERM:

Thursday night: MVFR/IFR conditions at all terminals due
to rain showers. Winds from the SE winds 5-10 kts.

Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions due to rain showers. Slight chance for
some scattered thunderstorms in far northern terminals. Winds from
the SE at 5-10 kts.

Friday night: VFR/MVFR conditions in light rain showers, that will
taper off overnight. Light winds from the S/SE.

Saturday - Saturday night: VFR conditions at southern terminals,
MVFR conditions possible in northern terminals in rain showers.
VFR conditions overnight. Slight chance for thunderstorms in
far northern terminals. Light winds from the S/SE.

Sunday: MVFR conditions in northern terminals from light rain
showers. Winds from the S at 5-10 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain well below small craft
levels today into Thursday. Seas will range from 2 to 4 feet
today before diminishing tonight. Visibilities may be reduced in
patchy fog tonight.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas below Small Craft Advisory criteria
for the rest of the week. Seas stay at or below 3 ft over the
outer waters, and at or below 2 ft for the inner waters.
Easterly winds at 5-10 kts on Thursday, shifting to southerly by
Friday. Potential for rain showers Thursday into Friday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...AStrauser/Buster
Short Term...LaFlash
Long Term...LaFlash
Aviation...AStrauser/Buster/LaFlash
Marine...AStrauser/Buster/LaFlash