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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
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060 FXUS61 KCAR 160524 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 124 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Several weak troughs of low pressure will cross the area through Tuesday. A cold front approaches the area Tuesday night, then slowly crosses the region Wednesday and Wednesday night. An upper level disturbance passes on Thursday with high pressure building in through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 124 am update... A band of showers and storms continues to cross through northern Vermont and Quebec, and will continue to track towards our forecast area through the late overnight hours. This line still has lightning associated with it, and is likely to keep some isolated thunderstorms embedded in the line of showers as it moves into northern Maine through the early morning hours. Previous discussion... Hot and humid conditions exist over most of the area though the immediate shoreline and outer islands remain in the 60s. Dwpts remain in the middle to upper 60s and will only climb throughout the nighttime hours. Only isolated showers this afternoon, though cannot rule out an isolated lightning strike later this afternoon or evening. Line of thunderstorms developing ahead of front over Quebec should begin to dissipate with loss of diurnal heating before heading into the Crown of Maine. More potent complex of storms over western NY expected to survive into srn New England late tonight but gradually dissipate as it heads into Maine after 08z. Dewpoints will remain anomalously high throughout the overnight with temps only able to dip into the u60s. Hires guidance is all over the place with resultant MCV left behind by complex as it moves into New England tonight. Majority of guidance has it moving northeast into nrn Maine after daybreak with showers moving through initially as storms develop late in the morning due to heating. Strength of the convection depends on the amount of clearing in the morning with progged CAPES of around 1000 joules. 0-6km shear will be increasing during the afternoon toward 35-40kts but mid-level lapse look to be marginal. High temps on Tuesday in the middle to upper 80s over inland locations with dewpoints reaching into the lower 70s will keep heat indices in the lower to middle 90s. The only place where we will confidently hit heat advisory criteria (HI>95 degrees) is in southern Penobscot. Cannot rule out a couple of hours of around 95 heat index for the Dover and Lincoln areas but confidence is a little too low to issue an advisory for these areas and will allow later shifts to get a better idea on how high the temps and dwpts will be. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The upper level trof will swings a very weak low pressure system into the area Tuesday night. A very weak warm front is expected to lift across the north bringing warm S flow and keeping nighttime temps in the upper 60s to low 70s. In addition, showers should continue across the region, but mainly in the north near the frontal boundary. By Wednesday, the center of the low pressure should move NE, bringing the weak cold front across the area. Showers are expected to continue throughout the day with temps reaching into the upper 80s across the area. With the moist environment, heat indices could reach into advisory level by the afternoon. In addition, upper air model soundings show an increase in instability with the prefrontal boundary. With CAPE >1000 J/kg and bulk shear >35 kts, some thunderstorms could become severe. However, lapse rates are fairly weak at low and mid level, which could keep some storms from building. Localized heavy rainfall is expected with the increasing PWATS, long skinny CAPE in the column, and high RH in the low and mid levels. By Wednesday night, the cold front is expected to move through changing winds to W flow and pushing temps into the mid 60s. Showers should continue through Thursday where temps are expected to be much cooler on the upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure is expected to move into the area Thursday night and stick around through Saturday night. A much cooler upper level airmass is expected to move through on Friday bringing temps into the upper 70s with sunny skies. The next frontal system is expected on Sunday, but the models lose consistency with the timing of the system. The beginning of next week looks less active. Expect temps near normal for the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: Generally VFR conditions to continue across northern terminals over the next 24 hours. BHB is likely to quickly drop to LIFR as fog moves in from the waters over the next couple of hours, and may be slow to improve through the morning. BGR may see a brief drop in cigs and vis as the fog pushes further inland, but is just far enough inland where they could also stay VFR through the night. A line of showers and storms will push into the area through the early morning hours, and should stay north of BGR, hence no VCTS in the TAF. However, GNR up through FVE has a chance of seeing early morning lightning. Chance for showers and storms through the day on Tuesday across all terminals, with brief MVFR conditions possible in any rain. A return of IFR is possible at BHB and any terminal which sees rain during the day on Tuesday into Tuesday night. Winds light and variable through the early morning hours, becoming SW at 5 to 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts or higher in any storms. Light and variable winds return Tuesday night. SHORT TERM: Wed...MVFR to possible IFR in rain showers. Isolated thunderstorms, some strong, Wed afternoon. SW winds 5-10 kts. Wed night-Thu...Mainly VFR with possible MVFR in rain showers. W winds 5-10 kts. Thu night-Sat...VFR. WSW winds 5-10 kts. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Fog will continue to reduce visibilities tonight but winds and seas will remain below small craft conditions. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA conditions for this time period. Visibilities reduced in nighttime patchy fog. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Heat Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT this evening for MEZ015. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...AStrauser/Buster Short Term...LaFlash Long Term...LaFlash Aviation...AStrauser/Buster/LaFlash Marine...AStrauser/Buster/LaFlash