655
FXUS62 KCAE 131432
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1032 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect isolated to scattered diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms this weekend and early next week with above normal
temperatures. Warm and humid conditions continue through the
end of the long term with increasing rain chances late next week
as a cold front likely stalls across the Southeastern US.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s)

- Mainly isolated convection today. Severe storms unlikely.
- Heat index values in the 100-105 range this afternoon.

10:30 Update: A tale of two parts of the forecast area; the
western half is under mainly clear skies while the eastern half
is seeing partly to mostly cloudy skies. Only shower activity on
the radar is off the coast at this time. Temperatures have risen
to the mid to upper 80s as of the latest readings. Otherwise,
the forecast remains on track.

Early-morning discussion: With ridging building into the area
today convective coverage should be low this afternoon. Warm air
aloft will hinder updraft/storm strength limiting the threat of
severe weather. PWAT values increase from west to east from 1.6
to 1.9 inches suggesting that coverage could be a little higher
in the east closer to the I-95 corridor. The HREF ensemble
supports generally isolated coverage across the area with
enhanced development to the east and on the sea breeze. It will
be warmer today than the previous day with highs in the mid to
upper 90s. With afternoon dewpoints lowering into the upper 60s
to low 70s Heat Index values should remain below advisory
criteria. Lows tonight in the mid 70s. Convection will diminish
quickly in the evening with loss of heating.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Chances of mainly afternoon and evening convection each day
- High temperatures in the upper 90s to around 100 with
  potential for Heat Advisories Sunday and Monday

Little change in the overall synoptic pattern Sunday and Monday
with the upper levels remaining zonal and high pressure well
offshore in the western Atlantic. This will keep the forecast
area under a moist and hot air mass with pwat values ranging
from 1.75 inches in the western Midlands to just over 2.0 inches
in the eastern Midlands. Instability will be moderate each day
with light winds through the mid levels and weak divergence
aloft to support convection. With the zonal flow aloft a trigger
mechanism will be lacking so continue to expect slight chance
to chance pops each day for diurnal convection with the highest
chances in the southern and eastern portions of the forecast
area. With the weak flow cell movement will be slow so there is
potential for heavy rainfall along with some localized flooding
with training cells. High temperatures will also be a concern
each day with reading pushing into the upper 90s to around 100.
With the typical summertime dewpoints in the low to mid 70s this
will push heat index values into the 105 to 108 degree range
and possibly higher. Will continue to monitor the need for a
Heat Advisory each day.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Hot and humid conditions Tuesday will potential for lowering
  temperatures through next Friday
- Increasing potential for convection each day through the long
  term

Synoptic pattern changes continue to be the theme of the long
term forecast. The zonal pattern aloft will become more
amplified on Tuesday with ridging building over the western US
and a trough digging into the eastern US. By Wednesday the
trough axis will be over the MS Valley and show little movement
through the week as the upper level pattern becomes more
amplified including being anchored by a strong upper low off the
British Columbia coast. As this occurs a weak frontal boundary
will push through the eastern US and move into the SE US
Thursday. As the boundary moves in from the northwest the high
over the western Atlantic will continue pushing moisture into
the area resulting in a convergence of features over the
forecast area. As models have been aggressive with pops recently
have tapered pops down for Tuesday through Friday however the
model indications for rain through the week is encouraging as
the area remains quite dry. With the increasing chance of
convection and the trough moving in the eastern US high
temperatures will be in the upper 90s to around 100 Tuesday then
cool a couple degrees per day with mid 80s to around 90 possible
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Low convective
coverage this afternoon.


Light and variable winds expected for most of the 24 hour TAF
period. Some stratus is hanging around the OGB terminal, but
it`s starting to scatter out as of 14z. Rain chances are
relatively low on Saturday with the deepest moisture now east of
the area. Low level moisture remains high tonight so we could
see another round of low stratus or fog early Sunday morning.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms expect and may cause periodic restrictions each
day. Fog and stratus also possible Sunday morning.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$