024
FXUS62 KCAE 150159
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
959 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated to scattered diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms
remain possible early this week with above normal temperatures.
Humid conditions continue through the end of the long term with
increasing rain chances later in the week as a cold front
likely stalls across the Southeastern US and a tough sets up
over the middle of the country.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Continued warm and muggy conditions overnight.

There remains one small batch of convection across eastern
Midlands. This is being maintained by a weak shortwave moving
northward along the westward periphery of upper ridge, along
with an area of enhanced instability. This activity is moving
slowly southeastward, and should continue through 04z before
either dissipating or moving into the coastal plain.

Outside of this convection, some scattered cloud cover may
remain overnight. In addition there will be plenty of moisture
across the region. This will bring yet another warm and muggy
night to the cwa. Low temperatures are forecast to drop into the
mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Increasing chances of mainly afternoon and evening convection
  each day
- High temperatures in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees with
  the potential for a Heat Advisory Monday and Tuesday

Upper ridging begins to break down during the short term while a
trough sets up over the Central CONUS. The Bermuda high will
continue to provide increasing moisture from the Atlantic with
PWATs between 1.75 and 2 inches on Monday and between 2 and 2.25
inches Tuesday. While instability will be sufficient for
convection, the continued ridging aloft and the overall lack of
a trigger should limit development to typical hit or miss
showers and thunderstorms in addition to activity that develops
along the sea breeze. The weak steering flow aloft combined with
the high moisture could cause any convection that does develop
on Monday and Tuesday to produce locally heavy rainfall. Heat
Index values will be near criteria for a Heat Advisory,
especially in our southeastern CWA but will hold off on issuing
products for Monday at this time due to it being a marginal case
and to avoid confusion with the hot conditions this afternoon.
Tuesday appears to be the worst day but the increased risk of
convection puts the need for heat products into question.
Caution will be needed if outdoors either day regardless of
whether an advisory is issued. Trends will continue to be
monitored.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Gradual cooling trend possible Wednesday through Saturday
- Showers and thunderstorms expected each day

Upper trough continues to dig over the middle of the country
during the extended period while surface high pressure remains
anchored near Bermuda. This increase in moisture will combine
with an approaching cold front later this week to produce
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day as the
boundary eventually stalls across the region. Continued to lower
PoPs downward due to the ongoing dry conditions and uncertainty
regarding where the cold front eventually stalls. The additional
clouds and convection during the extended should result in a
gradual "cooling" trend with a highs falling to below normal
values near the end of the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions expected overnight, but some brief MVFR fog-
stratus possible early Monday.

The highly isolated convection that moved across the area this
afternoon will dissipate by 0300z; VCTS still mentioned in the
TAF at OGB given nearby storms, with a tempo group for tsra now
added through 0300z. Light and variable winds expected
overnight and into Monday morning. Some brief fog-stratus is
possible around sunrise at OGB and AGS, like we saw Sunday
morning. So continued a tempo mention at those sites. The rest
of Monday looks like a repeat of Sunday with isolated afternoon
convection across the entire area.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Typical summertime afternoon
showers and thunderstorms may cause periodic restrictions each
day with abundant moisture causing possible, brief early morning
restrictions around sunrise.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$