287
FXUS62 KCAE 190537
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
137 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will be stalled across the region for the
next several days with increased shower and thunderstorm
chances. Some locally heavy rainfall is possible which could
result in increasing level in area rivers. Temperatures will be
near to slightly below through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
Key Message(s):

- Shower activity diminishing the rest of tonight.

Shower activity continues to diminish and is expected to come to
an end by day break. Temperatures are in the low to mid 70s at
this hour under mostly cloudy skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
- Likely to numerous afternoon and evening showers and
  thunderstorms with the potential for gusty winds and flash
  flooding
- Daytime temperatures expected to be near normal

Upper level trough will continue digging into the Lower MS
Valley with the remains of the frontal boundary stalled across
the SE US. Although the frontal remains will continue weakening
there will be enough to initial convection along the boundary.
Instability on Friday will be moderate and with pwat values
around 2 inches the potential for locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds will again be present. With the mid and upper level
winds being 30 knots or less cell movement will be relatively
slow and combined with any training cells the potential for
localized flooding could quickly increase. As such nearly all of
the CAEs SC counties are in a WPC ERO slight risk for Friday.
The synoptic situation will be slow to chance on Saturday with
the main difference being the upper level trough axis slightly
east of Fridays position. Overall this will keep the forecast
very similar with showers and thunderstorms likely in the
afternoon and evening along with the potential for locally heavy
rainfall and gusty thunderstorms winds.

With the convection and associated clouds temperatures are
expected to be near to slightly below normal with afternoon
highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message(s):

-The pattern remains favorable for daily chances of afternoon
 and evening showers and thunderstorms

The upper level pattern will be very slow to change as a highly
amplified pattern will remain from the eastern Pacific through
the western Atlantic. The remains of the frontal boundary will
continue becoming more diffuse each day however remain a
focusing and trigger mechanism across the SE US. With the upper
trough and corresponding shortwaves rotating through the base
and across the region expect the daily showers and thunderstorms
to continue. Have remained cautious in raising pops yet likely
pops each afternoon and evening. With pwat values also remaining
around 2 inches the potential for locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds due to precip loading will continue. With several
days of locally heavy rainfall possible the potential for flash
flooding and hydro related issues will need to be monitored.

WPC continues to depict a Marginal Risk ERO through Sunday.
Daytime temperatures through the period will be near to slightly
below normal with upper 80s to low 90s each day.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR to IFR conditions possible near daybreak before improving
to VFR for much of the TAF period.

Rainfall continues to diminish as of 06z, with light showers
being noted around OGB. Showers are also nearing AGS/DNL, but
they are diminishing and don`t think they will reach the
terminals. That said, a light shower cannot be completely ruled
out at AGS or DNL in the next few hours. Already seeing IFR cigs
in the region, and expect these ceilings to continue spreading
across the area. Low ceilings should affect all terminals early
this morning, with AGS/DNL having the highest probability of
seeing IFR ceilings. Visibility restrictions due to fog are
also possible at the terminals. The most likely timeframe for
stratus and fog is from 09z to 13z. Winds are anticipated to be
light and variable through around 14z or 15z, then become
southwest between 5 and 10 kts.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Periods of showers and
thunderstorms may cause restrictions each day. In addition,
brief early morning restrictions may become more likely around
sunrise into the weekend.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...