Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
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793 FXUS62 KCAE 010807 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 407 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front currently moving through the region will bring slightly cooler and drier conditions to start off the work week. Building high pressure will allow the return of temperatures near the century mark by mid to late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Scattered showers and storms expected this afternoon, especially across the southern FA. An initial cold front has pushed through the region tonight, slowly drifting southward as the night has gone onward. Very little has changed weather wise with winds shifting out of the north and some stratus the biggest changes of note at this point. However, this will change through the day. A secondary cold front will shift southward through the area from the north and northeast, acting almost as a backdoor cold front. Ahead of this, moisture is expected to pool across our southern 1/3rd of counties, creating another chance for showers and storms across these areas. Shower/storm chances look to increase after 18z and last through mid afternoon or so. Bumped pops slightly northward this run, as well, as models seem slightly too progressive with the front. So overall, best chances for storms should be along and south of I20 this afternoon with drier air filtering in behind the front tonight. Highs today should be in the upper 80s and lower 90s, with lows tonight in the upper 60s got most. Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGE(S): - A brief respite from the heat and humidity. Tuesday and Tuesday night: This should be the coolest most refreshing day of the period. The front will be south of the area, and drier/cooler air will still be filtering in from the north. Can not rule out an isolated shower over the southern cwa due to the proximity of the front and slightly deeper moisture in that area, but the majority of the cwa will remain dry. Highs will be in the middle to upper 80s, with the apparent temperatures ever so slightly cooler due to the drier air in place. Lows range from the middle 60s to around 70. Wednesday and Wednesday night: During this period, the upper ridge will slowly begin to build back eastward, and moisture will also begin to return to the region. Center of the ridge axis will remain west of the cwa, but with rising heights, afternoon highs will reach back up to around 90 degrees. Low- level winds turn more easterly, bringing a return of Atlantic moisture. This will cause a noticeable increase in the heat index values as they will feel like the mid to upper 90s. Along with the moisture increase, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible by the afternoon and evening. Overnight lows drop down to around 70 degrees for one more night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Heat and humidity returns back to the region as high pressure aloft rebuilds once again. Thursday into the weekend, the upper ridge build across the area, along with a noticeable increase in moisture in lower levels. This will bring the return of above normal temperatures. Blended guidance brings highs on Thursday and Friday back into the mid to upper 90s, and the upper 90s to around 100 degrees expected through the weekend. Unfortunately, with the return of the moisture, heat index values will rise back up to around heat advisory criteria for much of the cwa by next weekend. The ridge may weaken slightly by Sunday, allowing a surface front to approach the area from the north. Confidence not high that this front will be able to make it into the cwa. As for rainfall, guidance does show at least isolated to scattered diurnal convection beginning on Friday through the weekend. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Restrictions are expected to develop over the next couple of hours at all sites, lasting through mid-morning. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be confined to the Augusta and Orangeburg terminals this afternoon and evening. Cold front is slowly pushing towards the forecast area, with earlier showers/thunderstorms either diminishing or shifting to our south. Two fronts are expected to pass during this period: an initial one in the next couple of hours that will offer a wind shift and then a more substantial front later this morning that should lower moisture. Stratus is developing behind this initial front north of the TAF sites, with IFR restrictions expected to build southward through 07z-08z. These should be mainly ceiling restrictions but some patchy fog should build as well especially given that many areas saw rain yesterday and low-level winds are light. Expect clouds to hang around until mid-morning before lifting. Expecting the secondary front to slow and stall near the southern FA, with showers and thunderstorms likely to impact AGS/DNL/OGB at some point or another. Winds are expected to be easterly or northeasterly by this afternoon between 5 and 15 knots. By tonight, showers/storms should diminish in coverage with a potential round of stratus on the other side of this forecast period. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Additional stratus and afternoon shower-storms likely Wednesday through the end of the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... KEY MESSAGE(S): -Increased Fire Danger mid to late week. -Rainfall probabilities remain relatively low mid week. Increased fire danger during the Independence Day Holiday week, especially late week as temperatures rise again to well above normal values and precipitation chances remains relatively low. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$