Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
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453 FXUS62 KCAE 020951 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 551 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Slightly cooler and drier air will spread into the area today. Moisture will slowly increase across the area mid to late week. High pressure building aloft by mid to late week will result in well above normal temperatures by the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: Beautiful weather expected today, with dry air and seasonal temperatures combining to yield low heat index values and an overall pleasant afternoon for July standards. ================================================================ High pressure is centered to our north still, with easterly and northeasterly flow dominant across the region. Some stratus is present across the southern forecast area, keeping temps a bit elevated there when compared to the rest of the FA. Well- advertised dry air has pushed into the forecast area, with the central and northern Midlands experiencing low 60s dewpoints and PWs less than 1.5". Tight moisture gradient is noted across the southern FA at this point, likely owed a little bit to the development of the stratus. Expecting the clouds to slowly creep northward a bit by sunrise but in general should remain across the southern FA. Today looks beautiful, especially for July`s standard. The airmass is very dry for this time of year, with dry low-levels expected to yield dewpoints mixing even lower across the area as we warm up today. This dry air should allow us to warm fairly easily compared to what guidance had been forecasting the last few days, with highs expected to get into the 88-92F range this afternoon. But with dewpoints falling into the upper 50s and low 60s this afternoon, this should be about as nice a day as you can expect for this time of year. Higher PWs will remain over the very far southern part of the CSRA and some guidance does show an isolated shower developing in the easterly flow, but thinking that this is unlikely to be widespread. Overnight tonight, the surface high is forecast to shift and allow low- level flow to shift out of the southeast and push moisture back into most of the forecast area tonight, so look for lows back in the upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Heat and humidity will once again begin to return to the region. Wednesday and Wednesday night: The upper trough and front that had brought a brief reprieve from the heat and humidity will begin to break down and retreat. Upper ridge west of the are will begin building back to the east through the day, while at the surface Atlantic moisture moves back into the area. The building ridge aloft should help keep a lid on any convective development across all but maybe the southern half of the cwa, where isolated convection may become possible as the sea-breeze moves inland. Afternoon high temperatures rise back up to around normal, which is in the lower to middle 90s. Any daytime convection will rapidly dissipate towards sunset with the loss of heating. Overnight lows move upwards too, with readings in the lower 70s expected. Thursday and Thursday night: Independence Day will continue the warming trend as the upper ridge becomes more centered across the area. Highs in the mid to upper 90s return, and with additional moisture moving into the cwa, afternoon heat index values will rise to between 100-105. Only isolated convection possible once again over the southern half of the area. Muggy conditions expected overnight with lows in the middle 70s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Heat and humidity will continue as high pressure aloft rebuilds into the region. Upper ridge will remain into the early weekend before an approaching trough attempts to flatten and weaken the ridge over the region, but with minimal impact to temperatures. Afternoon highs through the weekend will be in the mid to upper 90s, with some areas probably reaching the century mark. A weakening surface front will move towards the area Sunday into Monday before probably stalling out over the northern Midlands by Monday. Continued increase om moisture will combine with the development of lee-side trough this weekend, and then the cold front Monday, to keep isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions expected after morning stratus breaks up. Widespread stratus has actually develop across the southern FA tonight, impacting AGS/DNL/OGB. These clouds have largely held around 2500`, so just MVFR has been noted and is expected to continue being noted. This is expected to diminish in coverage after 12z this morning, but may still hang around. Most guidance that had this feature shows this, and it seems pretty reasonable at this point. Dry air should maintain mostly sunny skies across the rest of the area for the bulk of the day, keeping things VFR. We`ll see winds shift to southeasterly by this evening, slowing down overnight. Low-level flow will likely be southeasterly as well tonight, casting some uncertainty as to whether or not we see stratus develop again. The southeasterly low-level flow vector favors it despite guidance not being on board yet, so hedge towards possible MVFR restrictions developing again tonight, especially at AGS/DNL. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No restrictions expected through midweek outside of some early morning stratus which may briefly become MVFR. Moisture returns late in the week with afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible into the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... KEY MESSAGE(S): -Increased Fire Danger mid to late week. -Rainfall probabilities remain relatively low mid week. Increased fire danger during the Independence Day Holiday week, especially late week as temperatures rise again to well above normal values. Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms possibly may aid current dry conditions. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... FIRE WEATHER...