460
FXUS62 KCAE 060106
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
906 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture increases into the weekend with isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms each day. Above normal temperatures
are expected again Saturday with Heat Index values up to 110
possible. Atmospheric moisture remains high through the long
term supporting a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Key Message(s):
- Another muggy night with isolated showers and storms lingering
  into the overnight hours.

Lingering convection this evening developing along outflow
boundaries but coverage continues to decrease and cloud tops are
warming on satellite imagery. Isolated showers and maybe a storm
overnight but coverage will be limited. Otherwise, expect
similar conditions to last night with temperatures falling
slowly but bottoming out in the mid to potentially upper 70s as
a southwesterly low level jet remains over the area ahead of a
cold front to the NW of the area, moving into the TN Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Heat Indices as high as 110 degrees Saturday. A Heat Advisory
  may be needed.
- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this weekend.
- Isolated Flash Flooding threat over the weekend.

Main upper trough axis will continue across the middle of the
country through the weekend, with some upper ridging still being
indicated across the forecast area. At the surface, a decaying
surface front will move into the cwa, which will at least
enhance lift somewhat. Add in high pwat values above the 2 inch
mark, and some instability by the afternoon each day, and we
should see scattered to possibly numerous showers and
thunderstorms developing bot Saturday and Sunday. High pwat
readings and potentially slower moving storms could lead to some
heavier rainfall at times.

Another day of higher heat indices are expected to be high over
the weekend. Afternoon highs in the middle 90s,and a good amount
of moisture, will lead to heat index readings above 105 to 110
for a period Saturday. Can not rule out another Heat Advisory
through the afternoon, but will wait until the current Advisory
expires this evening before possibly pulling the trigger on
that. There is still some uncertainty as to exact heat index
values, mainly due to when convection starts and how much cloud
cover gets created by that. Earlier convection and clouds would
keep slightly cooler readings, while later convection and more
sunshine will more than likely cause readings to rise to
advisory criteria. Sunday will be slightly cooler with more
clouds, and this will keep heat index readings between 95 to 105
degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- After Monday, heat indices climb back over 100 degrees.
- Daily diurnal convection expected.

We get back into a slightly more typical Summertime pattern
through the week. Pwat values remaining relatively high, at or
above 2 inches, with continued upper ridge just off the east of
the region across the western Atlantic. The main upper trough
axis continues to be west of the area, with stronger dynamics
deflecting further off to the north through the period. With
plenty of moisture, and afternoon highs forecast in the low to
mid 90s each day, much of the guidance shows high likelihood for
diurnal showers and thunderstorms. With the high pwat values,
any slow moving storms could produce periods of heavy rainfall.
In addition, can not rule out an isolated severe thunderstorm
threat.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with increasing
potential for convection.

Showers and thunderstorms are currently just west of CAE/CUB and
have updated to include TEMPO through 02z for mention of
thunderstorms along with some gusty winds. By 03z expect
convection to have dissipated however clouds will linger
overnight. With a LLJ also over the area the threat for low
clouds and fog remains too low to include. With sunrise and
onset of heating cumulus will again be developing with showers
and thunderstorms developing shortly after midday. Have included
VCSH for all sites from 17 or 18z through the end of the period
and will adjust as confidence in timing and coverage improves.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible in diurnally
driven showers and thunderstorms each day. The greatest
convective coverage expected Sat/Sun afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Although conditions remain dry across the area the South
Carolina Forestry Commission reported less fire activity today
than expected. There were some showers and thunderstorms in the
northern CSRA and western Midlands this afternoon and evening
however this will not be enough to eliminate the dry conditions
across the area.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$