Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
821 FXUS65 KBYZ 061619 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Billings MT 1019 AM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low precipitation chances linger through Monday SE Montana. - Warming trend Monday into Wednesday with highs approaching triple digits in some locations Tuesday and Wednesday. - Cold front Thursday brings back precipitation chances through Friday, along with more season temperatures. && .UPDATE... Mainly dry conditions can be expected today with seasonal temperatures as highs rise into the 70s to lower 80s. A few showers or thunderstorms are possible over the higher terrain this afternoon into the early evening (15% chance). Heading into tonight, isolated to scattered showers (15-30% chance) are possible over northern and eastern areas as a Canadian disturbance slides into the northern plains. STP && .DISCUSSION... Through Monday night... A quiet weather pattern for the rest of the weekend and to start the work week. Upper level energy that pushed a Pacific cold front through the area has shifted east of the area taking most of the convection with it. Expect isolated shower activity to linger over far eastern zones into the sunrise hours as the mid level front trails the main activity in the Dakotas. Over the next 48 hours a trof of Canadian origin will drop out of Alberta and into the northern plains. With cooler cyclonic flow aloft expect a few showers/weak thunderstorms to develop late this afternoon into early this evening mainly east of a Roundup to Billings line. Latest models keep low chances of precipitation going over the eastern half of the forecast area through tonight into Monday afternoon as the aforementioned trof transits the area. There is more moisture remaining over eastern Montana (PWATs 0.75 or better) compared to previous model runs which is enabling the better precipitation chances. That said any precipitation is expected to be light in nature (<0.10in). Precipitation chances end Monday afternoon, with a dry period beginning Monday night lasting into Thursday morning. Despite the upper trof transiting the forecast area temperatures are going to stay seasona this afternoon with highs mainly in the lower 80s. Monday looks slightly warmer over western zones with mid 80s there and lower 80s elsewhere. Chambers Tuesday through Sunday... Ridge aloft builds quickly over the area Monday night into Tuesday. This will bring very warm temperatures and dry conditions to the area Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs each day will be well into the 90s across the region with triple digits popping up in some locations. Another Pacific trof drops in from the northwest on Thursday afternoon. This will cut temperatures to more seasonal levels for Thursday and Friday along with bringing back chances for showers and thunderstorms. Precipitation chances for most areas will be highest Thursday night, with chances sagging to areas along the southern state line for Friday. Precipitation accumulations are forecast in the 0.10 to 0.25 inch range at this point, which is an increase over the past few days forecasts for this time period. Ridging builds in behind exiting trof on Saturday boosting high temperatures toward 90 degrees over central and western zones. Another period of hot and dry conditions settles in for Sunday into early next week with afternoon temperatures well into the 90s again. Chambers && .AVIATION... 15z Discussion... FG is starting to lift along the river valleys as KMLS is now reporting LIFR conditions as opposed to the VLIFR that prevailed for several hours prior. A stray shower is possible this afternoon and evening, however, the most of the forecast area should remain dry throughout the period. Winds should be light out of the NW during the day today transitioning to light and variable overnight. WMR && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 083 059/085 060/096 064/097 063/084 056/080 055/089 0/U 20/U 00/U 10/U 11/U 41/B 10/U LVM 081 048/085 052/092 055/091 054/082 046/079 048/087 0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 13/T 31/B 10/U HDN 083 057/086 059/097 061/099 060/085 054/081 052/089 0/U 20/U 00/U 10/U 11/U 41/B 10/U MLS 082 059/084 060/097 065/099 064/087 056/080 055/089 0/U 21/U 00/U 10/U 10/U 31/B 10/U 4BQ 080 061/082 060/093 065/096 064/086 056/075 055/086 0/U 31/U 00/U 10/U 10/U 41/B 11/B BHK 080 055/081 056/090 062/096 061/086 053/077 052/084 1/U 22/T 00/U 11/U 11/B 31/B 11/B SHR 082 053/083 053/094 058/096 057/083 049/075 048/084 1/U 21/U 00/U 00/U 11/U 42/T 11/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings