Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
965 FXUS65 KBYZ 260840 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 240 AM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - High temperatures in the 80s to lower 90s Thursday and Friday. - Daily afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm chances continue into the weekend. Drier conditions look to return by Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Friday night... Current analysis shows the shortwave disturbance that brought showers and thunderstorms to eastern MT moving east into the Dakotas. With this recent precipitation, far eastern MT (Carter and Fallon counties) have about a 20% chance of seeing fog through around 8 am this morning. Into the afternoon some energy ahead of longwave troughing will move through central MT as well as SE MT. Daytime heating and decent forcing overhead will allow for MUCAPE values of up to 1000 J/kg and shear of about 35 kts, supporting a few strong to severe thunderstorms (mainly Wheatland through northern Rosebud). With warmer and drier conditions in the low to mid levels, strong winds will be the main concern with any thunderstorms that form. High temperatures will be in 80s to low 90s. Overnight, a low level jet will keep some showers and thunderstorms around for eastern MT (10-20% chance). Into Friday, troughing passing through northern MT will create another afternoon of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Instability looks to be not as supportive for severe storms (MUCAPE~ 250-750 J/kg), but a few strong storms cannot be ruled out with strong winds being the main concern. High temperatures will be in the 80s to around 90 degrees. TS Saturday through Wednesday... Weak cyclonic to zonal flow will keep daily chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms (15-40%) in the forecast for Saturday and Sunday. At this time, the best potential for strong thunderstorms looks to exist over far southeast MT for both Saturday and Sunday as southeast surface flow transports moisture and instability into the region (PWATs of 0.8-1 inches). Ensembles continue to prog upper level ridging building into the region by late Sunday/Monday, bringing warmer and drier conditions into the first part of Tuesday. Troughing moving into the western US and ridging over the central US will put the area back into an active weather pattern as disturbances lift into the region from the SW and W, with southeast flow at the surface bringing moisture and instability into the area. This will promote isolated to scattered (15-40%) daily shower and thunderstorm chances for the rest of the week. High temperatures are forecast to range from the 70s to 80s Saturday and Sunday, warming into the 80s to lower 90s Monday into Wednesday as ridging builds over the region. STP && .AVIATION... Patchy fog is possible over southeastern Montana (~25 percent chance) through 15z. Outside of areas that experience fog, VFR conditions will prevail. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will spread over the area from west to east this afternoon and evening. Wind gusts to 40 kts are possible with the strongest activity and localized MVFR conditions. STP && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 089 057/085 059/082 058/083 058/089 062/092 062/089 3/T 33/T 21/B 10/U 00/U 11/U 22/T LVM 084 050/083 050/081 049/082 050/087 054/089 056/085 2/T 23/T 22/T 10/U 00/U 12/T 33/T HDN 091 055/087 058/083 056/085 056/091 060/094 062/090 2/T 22/T 31/B 11/U 00/U 11/U 22/T MLS 092 060/089 062/084 059/086 058/089 063/093 065/091 2/T 20/B 31/B 11/U 00/U 11/U 22/T 4BQ 088 060/088 060/084 059/083 058/087 062/090 063/090 2/T 20/U 10/U 32/T 10/U 11/U 21/B BHK 086 058/088 057/083 054/081 054/083 057/087 058/086 1/U 21/U 21/U 21/U 10/U 11/U 21/B SHR 086 054/087 054/082 053/082 052/085 056/088 056/087 2/T 21/B 12/T 22/T 11/U 12/T 23/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings