Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
546 FXUS65 KBYZ 190747 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 147 AM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024 .DISCUSSION... Through Saturday Night... Showers and thunderstorms are dissipating this morning, however, some isolated to scattered (15-25%) storms may persist over the eastern edge of the region. Upper level flow is expected to become more northwesterly today, and passing shortwaves will bring a 15-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms over the mountains this afternoon and a 20-40% chance over the mountains Saturday afternoon with a 10-20% chance over lower elevations. As the flow becomes northwesterly, the impacts of wildfire smoke from the west will decrease. However, it will open the door for smoke from Canadian wildfires out of northern Alberta. High temperatures today and Saturday will be slightly cooler, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Archer Sunday through Thursday... WPC 500 mb clusters showed good agreement on the overall flow pattern during this forecast period. The overall pattern is a ridge over western North America this weekend that then slides eastward to central North America by mid/late week. Although the ridge will slide eastward, our weather will still be dominated by the ridge. Sensible weather will be continued very warm/hot conditions with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms (20-40% chance) mainly confined to the mountains, until Thursday when isolated showers/storms are expected (20% chance) over the lower elevations of south central MT. Wildfire smoke likely will be in our area, at least aloft. High temperatures will generally be in the 80s and 90s Sunday and Monday then 90s Tuesday and 90s to lower 100s Wednesday and Thursday. NBM again shows relatively low uncertainty in the high temperature forecast, with the 10th to 90th percentile at Billings ranging from 88-95F on Sunday to 95-104F on Thursday. In addition, NBM shows a 20-60% chance of temperatures reaching 100F or higher in the valleys of south central MT and north central WY (greatest probability near Yellowstone County), and a 20-70% chance on Thursday, with the area of greater probability values expanding to Custer and Powder River Counties. RMS && .AVIATION... Showers and thunderstorms are decreasing and moving out of the area this morning. Isolated thunderstorms may persist over the east, including KBHK, this afternoon. Expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the mountains this afternoon. Slantwise visibility may be reduced at times due to wildfire smoke. Archer && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 094 064/093 064/092 064/093 063/096 065/100 067/101 0/U 01/U 11/U 00/U 00/U 01/U 01/G LVM 093 057/091 054/090 055/091 055/097 058/099 057/098 1/U 11/U 11/U 00/U 01/U 11/U 12/T HDN 094 062/093 059/092 060/093 060/098 061/100 063/103 1/U 12/T 11/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/G MLS 092 065/091 064/090 064/090 064/094 065/097 067/100 1/U 12/T 11/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 4BQ 092 065/091 063/089 062/089 063/094 064/098 065/100 2/T 11/U 11/U 01/U 00/U 00/U 00/U BHK 089 061/088 059/086 059/088 060/089 060/094 061/096 2/T 12/T 11/U 11/U 00/U 00/U 00/U SHR 091 058/090 055/088 056/089 056/095 058/097 059/099 1/H 12/T 12/T 01/U 00/U 00/U 01/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings