Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
178 FXUS65 KBYZ 040254 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Billings MT 854 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024 .UPDATE... There were isolated strong wind gusts over the forecast area this afternoon, with thunderstorms producing a 68 mph gust along I-90 at the MT/WY border, 54 mph in Sheridan, and 51 mph in Reed Point. A few stronger storms produced copious amounts of small hail, including in the Billings vicinity. The precipitation dropped afternoon temperatures into the 50s in many areas, not too shabby for July 3rd. Convection should continue to diminish in coverage and intensity as the sun sets. There will continue to be enough energy flowing through the area (under the deepening trof aloft) to keep at least a slight chance of showers going through the night though, mainly over SE Montana. Chances for thunderstorms will become very low after midnight. With the decoupling of the atmosphere after sunset, expect patchy fog development over low lying areas where precipitation occurred. This will be mainly below 3500 feet. Another round of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms is on tap for tomorrow afternoon. Chambers && .DISCUSSION... Through Thursday Night... Showers and thunderstorms continue to spread south and east over the area this afternoon. We`ve had lots of pea size hail reports and heavy rainfall with the thunderstorms, with even nickel size hail reported near Park City. Expect the showers and thunderstorms to spread south and east through the evening hours, gradually decreasing from west to east overnight. The strongest storms will be capable of large hail and strong winds, mainly near the MT/WY border from the Bighorn Mountains and south and east where CAPE and shear are highest (up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE and 30-40kts of deep layer shear). Cyclonic northwest flow over the area and wrap around moisture working back into the region from an upper low over the Dakotas will keep shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast for Thursday, greatest over eastern areas. Snow levels drop towards 9,500 feet tonight into Thursday, with some snow showers and light snow accumulations possible in the Beartooth/Absaroka mountains. Precipitation totals over the area through Thursday will generally range from 0.10-0.50 inches, with locally higher totals under thunderstorms. Shower and thunderstorms decrease into Thursday evening with most activity done by 9pm MDT. Mainly dry conditions are expected Thursday night for Independence Day celebrations. Highs for Independence Day will range from the lower to middle 70s. Close to 10 degrees below normal. STP Friday through Wednesday... Temperatures will be on the rise over the long term as an upper ridge sets up over the west coast. The ridge is expected to eventually move east by Wednesday with about 85% of models showing this solution. Tuesday and Wednesday next week will bring the first chances for reaching 100 degrees. For Wednesday, NBM is giving a 10-25% chance of getting a temperature over 100 degrees for locations in low elevation river valleys. Overnight lows are expected to remain tolerable bringing much needed relief during the overnight hours. NBM currently does not show any chance of getting a low temperature above 70 degrees across the region through Wednesday. Due to these factors the NWS HeatRisk currently keeps the region in a moderate risk for heat related impacts. Looking farther out and putting this into context, the lowest record daily high temperature for Billings on the days of our expected heat wave is 101 degrees making it unlikely at this time that we will set any records. With the ridging to our west there will be a series of waves passing through our eastern zones. The waves that move through Saturday will have access to the best moisture bringing a 30% chance of precipitation for most of the area. The best chances for precipitation will be for locations farther north and east such as Miles City and Baker where there is a 50% chance of getting 0.10 inches of precipitation. Overall the long term looks dry with seasonal temperatures until Monday when we start to switch to above average temperatures. Torgerson && .AVIATION... Showers and thunderstorms will gradually decrease in coverage tonight from west to east (thunderstorms possible before 06z). Patchy fog development is expected after 08z through 15z, mainly in low lying areas below 3500 feet MSL. This includes KBIL, KSHR, KMLS TAF locations. Development is most likely from Rosebud county east where the boundary layer is deepest, but just about any low elevation river valley will support patchy fog overnight. Where fog develops expect flight conditions down to LIFR levels. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms develop over the area once again on Thursday. Mountain obscurations will be possible with any associated showers and thunderstorms. Chambers && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 053/076 052/081 054/085 054/082 056/089 059/092 061/095 22/T 02/T 22/T 10/U 00/U 00/U 00/U LVM 044/074 046/081 048/082 048/082 051/089 054/091 056/094 42/T 02/T 12/T 10/U 00/U 00/U 00/U HDN 050/076 048/082 051/085 051/082 051/089 055/092 057/096 22/T 12/T 22/W 21/U 00/U 00/U 00/U MLS 054/074 054/079 054/081 056/080 056/086 058/089 060/092 34/T 13/T 32/W 11/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 4BQ 053/074 052/080 054/082 054/080 055/086 057/090 059/092 44/T 12/T 31/B 11/U 00/U 00/U 00/U BHK 051/071 052/078 051/077 052/078 053/082 054/086 055/088 46/T 14/T 23/T 11/U 00/U 00/U 00/U SHR 045/074 045/080 048/083 048/078 048/086 052/090 055/092 23/T 12/T 21/U 21/U 00/U 00/U 00/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings