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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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667 FXUS61 KBUF 130213 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1013 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS... While a few showers will still be possible this evening...expansive high pressure centered over the Mississippi valley will build east to support generally fair dry weather tonight through at least Wednesday night. Meanwhile...temperatures this week will gradually increase back to above normal late summer levels. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Cloud and shower coverage are slowly diminishing this evening as a trough tracks away from the area, and as temperatures aloft slowly warm. Temperatures across the forecast area are in the upper 50s to upper 60s. An expansive area of high pressure will build across the Upper Great Lakes tonight. While this will keep fair weather in place for much of the region...a northwest flow of 10C H85 air will be JUST chilly enough to encourage some lake effect strato-cu and possibly an isolated shower or two between KROC and KSYR. It will be cool with mins away from the lakes in the 50s. The large sfc high will build across all of the Great Lakes region Tuesday and Tuesday night...while ongoing subtle warm advection will eliminate the morning instability over the lakes and minimize diurnal instability inland during the midday and afternoon. The result should be partly to mostly sunny skies Tuesday with a non zero potential for showers...then mainly clear skies for Tuesday night. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A strong ridge of high pressure will slowly build east across the Great Lakes as upper level troughing remains anchored across New England to the Canadian Maritimes this period. While mainly dry weather is expected to prevail across the forecast area, a few showers or thunderstorms can`t be ruled out. This will mainly be the case across the North Country during peak heating in the afternoon hours, in closer proximity to the eastern trough. Mid-range guidance shows some light QPF further south across the Finger Lakes and even the Southern Tier during this time, and while an isolated shower or two is not completely out of the question, model soundings look very dry and thus will lean towards a rain-free forecast at this point. Temperatures this period will be a bit warmer than the previous few days and average near to a couple of degrees above normal for mid August. This will translate to daytime highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Overnight lows will range from the mid 50s across the hilltops to the low 60s across the Lake Plains Wednesday night, with Thursday night being just a couple of degrees warmer. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... During this period the axis of large-scale, nearly vertically stacked troughing will slowly make its way from the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes to Southern Ontario and the Lower Great Lakes. While the medium range guidance continues to exhibit some differences in the finer details of the evolution of this trough...in general the various packages remain in good agreement on the overall large-scale pattern. For our area...this will result in increasingly unsettled and also more humid weather as we push through this period...particularly from Saturday onward as GOMEX-based moisture (PWATs of 1.5 to 2 inches) gets drawn northward and wrapped into this system`s circulation. Looking a little more closely at the forecast details...Friday will be the best day of this period...with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and chances for scattered afternoon showers/isolated storms across western New York as the front flank of the above system begins to impinge upon our region. More numerous showers and scattered storms then appear to be likely from Saturday through Monday...with the periods of greatest coverage tied to the diurnal heating cycle as well as the passage of shortwave impulses rotating through the base of the larger-scale trough...with the latter still extremely difficult to time at this distant vantage point. Owing to the progressively more humid airmass...there`s also at least a low chance that some of the showers and storms could pose a risk for heavy rain and flooding at times...though the where and when of this remain difficult to pin down given the usual uncertainty in the finer-scale details this far out in time. Otherwise...high temperatures should generally trend downward a bit Saturday through Monday with the continued encroachment of the large- scale trough and the increased cloud and convective coverage... though this will be offset by warmer overnight lows such that temperatures will average out near to slightly above normal. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Tonight into Tuesday morning, cool air within the overhead trough will be enough to generate a weak lake response southeast of the lakes. This should mostly result in stratocumulus with cigs in VFR range, though MVFR to localized IFR will be possible across the higher terrain areas. A few showers may move into the vicinity of KROC late. Otherwise, some patchy fog will be possible in the Southern Tier, possibly reaching KJHW by sunrise. Tuesday night...Mainly VFR. Wednesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR. Low chances for showers and thunderstorms east of Lake Ontario. Friday...Mainly VFR. Chance for showers late. Saturday...Flight restrictions possible with showers and thunderstorms likely. && .MARINE... High pressure will begin to build into the eastern Great Lakes tonight. This will bring about lighter winds and wave action through most of the remainder of the work week. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RSH NEAR TERM...RSH SHORT TERM...PP LONG TERM...JJR AVIATION...RSH MARINE...AR