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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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933 FXUS61 KBUF 140252 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1052 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Expansive high pressure centered over the Mississippi Valley will build east and support mainly dry weather through mid week, although there could be a few hit and miss showers. Better chances for showers and thunderstorms will arrive late Friday and into the weekend. Temperatures will become gradually warmer as the week goes on. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A swath of wildfire smoke over the western counties will continue to drift south during the overnight...while mainly clear skies will be found elsewhere. The mainly clear skies and light winds from high pressure sitting over us will lead to another decent night of radiational cooling...so temps by daybreak will range from the upper 40s in the coolest southern tier valleys to near 60 along the shores of Lakes Erie and Ontario. There will be quite a bit of sunshine again on Wednesday with warmer weather and high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. An isolated shower is again possible, across the Southern Tier and also the North Country. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A broad surface ridge will begin this period to our west, with light northwest flow continuing low humidity and pleasant overnight temperatures in the lower 50s inland to lower 60s closer to the warmer lake shoreline. Any spotty evening showers east of Lake Ontario Wednesday evening will quickly diminish with the stabilization of the lower atmosphere. This surface high will cross our region Thursday, yet aloft a departing mid level trough will linger enough moisture to allow for a spotty shower or thunderstorm through the afternoon hours. This activity will wane in the evening. A light southeast flow will develop Thursday night, and along with increasing mid and high level clouds from the west will lead to slightly warmer air temperatures overnight. Most areas will have overnight lows in the lower to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The ridge of high pressure will move east of the Great Lakes to New England Friday. In its wake, a longwave trough will then slowly encroach on the forecast area from the west as it digs down to the Southeast states from Ontario and Quebec. A sharpening, cyclonically curved jet rounding the base of this trough will allow for a steady transport of GOMEX moisture into the eastern Great Lakes region with increased humidity and PWATs quickly rising to between 1.5-1.9" from west to east Friday. Combined with the increased synoptic forcing and large scale height falls aloft, expect chances for showers and thunderstorms to increase in tandem Friday, with precipitation `likely` in the western Southern Tier by the afternoon. A period of steadier rain, which could be heavy at times, is then expected across WNY on the nose of the stronger jet energy Friday night though a slot of relatively drier air on its heels may cause precip to be more of the showery variety later in the night. Very unsettled weather persists across the entire forecast area through the weekend and possibly into Monday as the mid-level trough partially closes off north of the region, causing its eastward progression to dramatically slow. Deep layer RH fields and model QPF depicted by the long range guidance suggests that there should be some dry time in the mix, though timing of these breaks becomes difficult to pin down with typical model discrepancies in timing and placement. With this in mind have undercut NBM PoPs a small amount, staying below `categorical` range until these details come into better focus. In general, expect the greatest chances for showers and thunderstorms Saturday through Monday to be during peak diurnal heating hours in the afternoon each day, though this activity could persist through the overnight periods with the main 700-500mb trough axis still upstream until sometime Monday evening. Given the high PWATs in place, some of this convection could result in locally heavy rainfall, especially Saturday and Sunday. Once the trough axis finally shifts eastward, surface high pressure will begin to slowly build back into the region from the Ohio Valley Monday night into Tuesday. There could be enough wrap-around moisture present to spur the development of a few additional showers, though the overall pattern favors lower chances for precip during this period. Temperatures will be warmest Friday with highs in the upper 70s/low 80s as warm advection should be ongoing out ahead of the large system to the west. Slightly cooler air within the trough should lead to a slight cooling trend through Sunday, with near normal temperatures then expected into early next week. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... While VFR conditions with light winds will remain in place through Wednesday...there will be patchy fog between 07 and 12z that will result in MVFR to IFR conditions at sites such as KJHW and KELZ. Outlook... Thursday...Morning fog across the western Southern Tier otherwise VFR. Friday...Mainly VFR. Chance for showers late. Saturday and Sunday...Areas of IFR or lower with showers and thunderstorms likely. && .MARINE... High pressure across the eastern Great Lakes will maintain quiet conditions on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario through mid week. The light flow will favor the development of afternoon lake breezes through Thursday. A southeasterly flow will develop by Thursday night and Friday as a warm front approaches the region, but speeds should remain less than 15 knots. A general south-southwest flow develops behind the warm frontal passage for the weekend period as low pressure meanders north of the lower Great Lakes. Speeds could exceed 15 knots both Saturday and Sunday afternoons, so cannot completely rule out the potential for marine headlines this weekend. The risk for thunderstorms increases on the Lower Great Lakes Friday through Sunday. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RSH NEAR TERM...Apffel/RSH SHORT TERM...Thomas LONG TERM...PP AVIATION...RSH MARINE...Apffel/TMA