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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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035 FXUS61 KBUF 141406 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1006 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will build east and support mainly dry weather through Thursday night, although there could be a few hit and miss showers east of Lake Ontario. Notably higher chances for showers and thunderstorms will arrive Friday and into the weekend. Temperatures will become gradually warmer as the week goes on. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High pressure will remain across the Great Lakes today... guaranteeing plenty of sunshine. 850 mb temperatures forecast to be around +14C will result in afternoon temperatures peaking in the upper 70s to lower 80s, perhaps a few mid 80s. Subtle trough working through New England and eastern New York could bring the outside chance a shower to the eastern Lake Ontario region this afternoon. Mainly clear skies tonight will result in favorable radiational cooling with valley fog forming overnight. Low temperatures in the lower 60s along the lake plains to the mid 50s for interior sections. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Ridging remains in control for areas south of Lake Ontario, while a trough of low pressure lingers across eastern NY and New England on Thursday resulting in a mainly dry day. Although a stray shower is possible for areas along and inland of any lake breeze boundaries across western NY during the second half of day, chances for a widely scattered shower or storm will be a bit better across inland areas east of Lake Ontario during the afternoon closer to a weak surface trough lingering across northern NY and cool cyclonic flow aloft associated with the western fringe of the upper level trough across New England. Dry weather is expected Thursday night as a transient upper level ridge crosses the region, while surface high pressure moves east across New England. Temperatures will increase a bit more with highs Thursday ranging from the upper 70s to mid 80s. A light southeasterly return flow will develop Thursday night as the surface high slides east into New England. This will result in warmer overnight lows with the bulk of the area bottoming out in the low to mid 60s, with some upper 50s found across the inland higher terrain. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... An amplifying upper level ridge across the Rockies and central CONUS will help promote a large scale downstream upper level trough to dig across the eastern Great Lakes and New England that is expected to persist through most, if not all of the long term period. This will result in unsettled weather for our area with bouts of showers and storms expected. Transient upper level ridge will move east over New England, while surface high pressure slides off the New England coast Friday. In its wake, a longwave trough will then slowly encroach on the forecast area from the west while digging southward from southeastern Canada into a good portion of the eastern third of the CONUS. A sharpening, cyclonically curved jet rounding the base of this trough will allow for a steady transport of deeper GOMEX moisture into the eastern Great Lakes region with increased humidity and PWATs quickly rising to between 1.5-1.8" from west to east Friday. Combined with the increased synoptic forcing and large scale height falls aloft, expect chances for showers and thunderstorms to increase in tandem Friday, with precipitation chances making it as far east as the Genesee Valley by late in the day. The greatest potential will be across far western NY closer to the approaching warm front. Deeper moisture and better forcing then move into our area Friday night bringing the likelihood for a period of showers and storms, some of which could be heavy at times. Very unsettled weather persists across the entire forecast area through the weekend and possibly into Monday as the stacked trough of low pressure partially closes off north of the region, while at the same time Ernesto churns northward through the western Atlantic along the eastern periphery of the trough. The combination of these factors will cause a slowing eastward progression of the system. Expect the greatest chances for showers and thunderstorms Saturday through Monday to be during peak diurnal heating hours in the afternoon each day, though this activity could persist through the overnight periods with the main trough axis remaining upstream until sometime later Monday. There will be some dry time built in as well, but timing is very difficult to pin down this far out as is typically the case. Given the high PWATs in place, some of this convection could result in the continued threat for localized heavy rainfall during this period. Once the trough axis and associated surface cold front finally shift east of the area, surface high pressure will begin to slowly build back into the region from the west Monday night into Tuesday. There could be enough wraparound moisture present to spur the development of a few additional showers, though we should see much more in the way of dry weather. Temperatures will be above average for the finish of the work week into the start of the weekend, before slowly falling to near or even a little below average by the tail end of the period as progressively cooler air associated with the trough settles across the region. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Widespread VFR conditions will be in place today...as high pressure centered over the Great Lakes will drift east. There is an outside chance of an afternoon shower, but unlikely that any TAF sites will be impacted. Mainly clear tonight with valley fog developing across the Southern Tier with vsby restrictions likely from KJHW to KELZ. Outlook... Thursday...VFR. Friday...Mainly VFR. Chance for showers late. Saturday and Sunday...MVFR to IFR with showers and thunderstorms likely. && .MARINE... High pressure across the eastern Great Lakes will maintain quiet conditions on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario through Thursday. The light flow will favor the development of afternoon lake breezes through Thursday. A southeasterly flow will develop by Thursday night and Friday as a warm front approaches the region, but speeds should remain less than 15 knots. A general south-southwest flow develops behind the warm frontal passage for the weekend period as low pressure meanders north of the lower Great Lakes. Speeds could exceed 15 knots both Saturday and Sunday afternoons, so cannot completely rule out the potential for marine headlines this weekend. The risk for thunderstorms increases on the lower Great Lakes Friday through Sunday. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMA NEAR TERM...TMA SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM...JM/PP AVIATION...RSH/TMA MARINE...Apffel/TMA